Call for debate on N.Z.’s future

Press, 1 October 1979, Page 4

Call for debate on N.Z.’s future

Fundamental decisions face New Zealand as Government becomes more centralised, technology expands, and old values are challenged.

This is the theme for a booklet just released by the Commission for the Future. Entitled “Societies in Change; A Question of Scale,” it is the second of three discussion papers intended to prompt a public “speak-up” campaign on preferences for the future. Extended familes, regional governments, informal “self-education” and mass immigration are some of the suggested options for the future.

Drawing on the ideas of prominent social scientists. the commission has tried to outline present changes in the Western world and those likely to result in the future.

The author of the 49page booklet is Mr K. G Zepke, a former schoolteacher and history lecturer at Auckland University.

Using the terminology of the American sociologist. Daniel Bell, the booklet suggests New Zealand is moving towards a "post-industrial” society in which technology makes big changes to work patterns, individuals have less influence in decisionmaking and highly educated experts acquire power over social and economic policy.

This trend is not unchangeable: New Zealanders can choose between centralised growth or decentralised, smallscale development, according to the commission. The second option, it says would involve a change in the present direction but would be better suited to a world facing the dangers of environmental breakdown, severe food shortages, material and energy shortages, unbalanced wealth distribution and nuclear war.

With its hydro-power, coal reserves, farming, forests and fish resources. New Zealand is well placed in regard to global energy, material and food

shortages, says the commission. However, New Zealand cannot isolate itself from big international problems — thus opening questions about future commitments on trade, foreign policy and alliances. New Zealand also cannot escape the pressure of world population changes, yet present trends suggest a big decline in population by 2010. One option could be to “enrich our existing pool of ideas” by encouraging immigration.' The commission says figures show a trend towards centralised decisionmaking that “alienates” many New Zealanders; 900 public bodies now in existence mean one for every 3500 people. While very few people understand the working of their government today, in the long term “only a few inside the system will know what is going on,” says the booklet. Two alternatives are. suggested as feasible. A radical approach would be to cut down the influence of experts and bureaucrats with elected decisionmakers forming “an informal, inflexible network, largely local-community based.” The commission warns that this would require a fundamental change in values and lifestyle. A second option would be to retain central policymaking in Wellington, but have decentralised, regional administrative systems. The commission favours more regional decisionmaking, but a retention of judicial, defence and transport systems at a large scale, where they can be run more economically and efficiently. New Zealanders also face decisions on the

shape of education in the future. Continuing education for adults is predicted as the "keystone,” much of it to be in week-end schools, evening classes, and sei f-instruction courses. The booklet says that if present population trends continue, about 70 per cent of the population will be older than 19 by 2010, and professional educators may not be needed far the type of education which will be demanded. A,new form of extended family, with up to four generations living together, is also envisaged by the commission. The nuclear family has gone through great change since the Second World War, it says, and today nearly 20 per cent of marriages have no children. Contraception, the demand by women for equal income opportunities, and changes in moral attitudes to marriage are all factors seen in the booklet as broadening the concept of family. The commission lists the hierarchy of human needs suggested by the American psychologist, Abraham Maslow, as criteria against W'hich the needs of New Zealanders can be measured; basic survival needs of food and shelter, security, acceptance as part of a social group, self-satisfaction and respect from others, and self-fulfillment of individual potential. The booklet contains h e a I t h-care statistics which it suggests cast doubt on the country’s ability to meet even the basic survival needs of some groups. “Societies in Change; A ( Question of Scale” deals | only with broad general- | isations about the future but makes no apology for ignoring specifics or methods for reaching suggested goals. The explained purpose is to encourage public involvement with submissions on the future (the commission’s address is P.O. Box 5053, Wellington). Strategies to take New Zealand into the future, i the booklet promises, are j the commission’s next tar- ; get.