’Too many old people worry for West’

Press, 19 June 1979, Page 9

’Too many old people worry for West’

NZPA-Reuter New York World population will increase by two billion to six billion people by the year 2000, despite a trend towards smaller families, according to a United Nations report released at the week-end.

The author of the report, Rafael Salas, the executive director of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities, said that by 1980 alone, global population will be 750 M more than the 1970 count. But the most serious population problem for the more developed countries was a drop in population, Mr Salas said.

“In the Federal Republic of Germany, for instance, the average family has already dropped below two children, a trend which is appearing in other Western countries also,” he said. While West Germany was one of the few States with a declining population, Britain, Austria, and Switzerland were among those with zero population growth.

Mr Salas said the decline in world fertility he mentioned in his 1978 report had since been confirmed, both in the developed countries and in many developing countries, where most people live.

“And there is no reason to expect a reversal in the foreseeable future,” he added.

“The rate of decline in fertility projected over the two remaining decades of this millenium will not prevent the world's population from increasing by nearly two billion, who must inhabit a world whose economic balance is already distorted by worsening poverty for most, and affluence for a few.”

A big concern, he said, was the growing number of old people and their impact on employment and economic and social policies in industrialised States.

In the United States, six people were working for every one retired, but in 50 years the ratio would be down to three to one, he predicted. The American Social Security system was already in trouble, Mr Salas said. Unless governments planned for population changes, investments in pensions, health, and other social services for elderly would not match population needs. The report also predicted that urban populations, which had doubled since 1950 with the move to cities and towns, would double again before 2000.