THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 17, 1979. Risks in Middle East delay

Press, 17 January 1979, Page 14

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 17, 1979. Risks in Middle East delay

President Carter’s readiness to call a meeting of President Sadat of Egypt and Mr Menachem Begin, of Israel, is an attempt to speed up negotiations in the face of unpromising circumstances. Since Egypt and Israel failed to meet the deadline for a peace treaty last month, little change in their positions has been evident. President Sadat is becoming increasingly aware that he is being isolated in the Arab world because of his dealings with Israel; the longer Israel waits the less certain it seems that it wants the risks associated with a peace treaty with Egypt.

President Sadat has tried from the outset to link the peace treaty with other matters, such as the granting of autonomy to the Palestinians on the West Bank of the Jordan River. As the evidence of his isolation increased, he appeared to become all the more determined to include additional matters in the treaty talks. He has two main factors working in his favour in the Arab world One is the important place of Egypt in Arab thinking. The second is that Egypt has borne the brunt of the four wars with Israel. A cynical Middle East maxim is that the “Arabs are prepared to fight to the death of the last Egyptian.’’ But President Sadat cannot depend on these advantages forever. In fact, time is on the side neither of the Arabs nor the Israelis. The alliance between Iraq and Syria, however short-lived it might prove to be, alters the situation significantly. The conventional wisdom of Middle East strategy has been that

the Arabs cannot win a war without Egypt. A combined force of Iraq and Syria supplied with Soviet arms has, nevertheless, to be considered formidable. The latest guerrilla attack within Israel and the threat of renewed attacks by the Palestine Liberation Organisation bode ill. The longer a peace treaty is delayed the stronger will be the opposition within the Arab world to Egypt’s dealings with Israel. Some significance may be attached to the fact that the leader of the P.L.0., Mr Yasser Arafat, made new threats after he had been talking to Prince Fahd of Saudi Arabia. For Egypt, the position of Saudi Arabia is crucial for economic and political reasons.

Other events are making a settlement more complicated as time goes on. The turmoil in Iran has made other Middle East autocracies nervous and has heightened tension in the area. The United States, worried about stability, has supplied aircraft to Saudi Arabia. The United States plainly wants a treaty very much indeed, not least because it wants to concentrate on other matters. Domestically, Mr Begin appears to be having a tough time. The religious elements within his coalition are making their presence felt. The latest announcement that more settlements are to be established within the West Bank area will arouse Arab anger and serve to confirm suspicions that Israel is not really serjous about seeking peace. Suspicion can do little other than bog the talks down still further. Each delay brings the Middle East closer to a new war.