Population loss cause of anxiety

Press, 20 December 1978, Page 12

Population loss cause of anxiety

By

LEONARD SANTORELLI,

who was in New Zealand last month covering the General Election for Reuters

“Country to let. Thousands of acres of good picnic area, four big cities, 12 small ones, suit an over-populated country. Handy to Australia and Fiji.” This advertisement appeared in the classified columns of a Wellington newspaper earlier this year, a facetious comment on a subject which would hardly raise an eyebrow in most countries but is now -' the 'cause of anxiety in t New Zealand. For the first time since World War 11, New Zealand this year suffered a net loss in population. The numbers leaving far exceeded births and new arrivals. The country’s languishing economy is the main cause. It has even been suggested that unless the flow is reduced, New Zealand will run out of people by the year 2021, although most experts would not go that far. But all agree that New Zealand, whose reputation as a land of opportunity has drawn the immigrants to man its industry, can ill afford to lose skilled workers. Government statistics show that it is precisely these workers — plumbers, electricians, carpenters, managers, and technicians — who left in the greatest numbers this year.

Most go to Australia, where they believe prospects are better. Britain and the United States are the next most popular destinations, according to the Statistics Department. The emigration figures would seem small in most countries, but they are significant when seen as a proportion of New Zealand’s population of 3.1 M. In 1976, 7000 more

people left New Zealand than settled here. This figure rose to 24,000 last year, and increased to 33,000 up to September of this year, helped by a declining birth rate. The reason for the exodus is not hard to find. High inflation, record unemployment, and relatively low wages have tarnished New Zealand’s image as a country of limitless opportunities for people willing to work hard. New Zealanders have seen their standard of living fair in recent years as their traditional exports of meat, wool, and dairy products failed to keep pace with the high costs of imported manufactured goods and oil. “Now the tables are turned,” says Mr John Gould, professor of econ- I omic history at Victoria I University of Wellington. “The terms of trade I have moved dramatically against us; we are just coming through the worst balance-of-payments crisis in our history; and demand for labour has slackened considerably.” Another factor, according to Professor Gould, is that it takes about three years for the disenchanted immigrant to return home. Today’s record departure rate is partly tire consequence of record immigration during the economic boom three or four years ago. But it is also caused by economic difficulties. In■Flntinn ic riinninor ohnut 1A

per cent, one of the highest rates among industrialised countries, and unemployment has risen to an unprecedented 50,000, although some of the unemployed have been put to work on special Government projects. Things are likely to get worse before they get better, according to the chief economist of the Bank of New Zealand, Mr Leonard

Bayliss. He said recently he believed unemployment might rise next year and that the flow of emigrants was likely to continue. “Australian wages are 50 per cent higher than those in New Zealand,” he said — and because of New Zealand’s low productivity they would be 100 per cent higher in 10 years a trend with the “most serious economic and social implications.” Among those most worried by this trend are the employers in the country’s industries, mostly meat processing and textiles. They can see short-term advantages in the unemployed taking over the jobs of the emigrants, but they also fear long-term disadvantages. The New Zealand Manu-

facturers’ Federation believes that cultural difficulties will arise as foreigners replace the departing New Zealanders at work and views the high proportion of young people leaving as a waste in social investment. “New Zealand is becoming for other countries an extremely cheap source of highly skilled labour,” the federation says. Many people take comfort in the belief that the exodus may merely be caused by the New Zealander’s traditional urge to

travel and that many who say they are leaving for good may return in a few years. Certainly New Zealand's conservative Prime Minister, Mr Muldoon, does not seem worried by the problem, although the Opposition Labour Party hammered the issue in the recent General Election. A spokesman for the Immigration Division declined to discuss whether the Government would consider relaxing immigra tion restrictions in order to reverse the flow.