Alarm at German ideas premature

Press, 8 November 1978, Page 7

Alarm at German ideas premature

7

CEDRIC MENTTPLAY

The Minister of Energy (Mr Gair) has attracted a lot of unfavourable publicity for himself with his suggestion that excess South Island electric generating capacity be sold to West Germany to promote German investment here. The shades of Comalco and Lake Manapouri have risen to haunt the National Party again.

Many consider the decision to raise Lake Manapouri during the 19605, and the huge protest movement which rose to combat it, had a big bearing on the subsequent defeat of the National Government in 1972. A deal to make large amounts of electricity available to West Ger-

many might have similar implications for National in the future. Much of the reaction so far to Mr Gair’s fairly vague statements has attacked West Germany as well as Mr Gair.

It will be time to attack West Germany when it has agreed to something which the elected Government of New Zealand does not want. To attack it for something it has not agreed to, and which the New Zealand Government seems to want, is a bit premature. As Mr Gair sees it, he, as Minister of Energy, has a problem. This is that the power planners have overestimated New Zealand’s future power requirements by about 30 per cent. He has three options open to him — he can cut power by about 30 per cent. He users for the excess power, or he can find a middle point between these two extremes. The recent visit to New Zealand of the Federal President of West Germany (Mr Walter Scheel) and the German Minister of Economics (Count Otto Lambsdorff) has reinforced the known willingness of West Germany to invest in New Zealand raw material and industry, helping develop these while making a profit for themselves. One raw material New Zealand has in abundance is water for electricity.

Using this raw material, particularly in the South Island, would help solve other problems Mr Gair has, in his capacity as Minister for Regional Development. The South Island patently needs some stimuli to encourage industry, so it is natural that Mr Gair should want

to combine his energy and regional deveiopment problems into a joint solution. But he is only suggesting that these problems be looked at together. He has not so far suggested that this joint solution is the best solution, and he has not made a firm offer to West Germany of surplus electric power. All he has done is say that this is one of the avenues West Germany might consider looking at for investment here.

If reaction against his suggestion is sufficiently hostile and widespread then, being an elected politician, be will know that he proceeds further at his own risk. The public reaction to raising Lake Manapouri is still fresh in the minds of members of the Government.

Mr Gair has since described allegations that the Government is working a secret deal with the West Germans on the use of New Zealand energy as “irresponsible rubbish.” This is a predictable response just before a General Election. However, such charges are less likely to be levelled against him if he made it clearer that discussions with West Germany are at a very early and indefinite stage.

In fact, no formal proposals have been formulated for West German consideration, much less approved. A group of West German businessmen will visit New Zealand next. March and a series of points for discussion have been sent for them to consider before coming here. These cover food processing timber, petrochemicals, and minerals-, and some of these in turn

would Involve large amounts of electricity. Whichever Government is elected later this month, serious thought must be given to developing the South Island, which is stagnating at the expense Of the North Island. One asset the South Island does have is cheaper electricity, so thought will have to be given to this too.

But any use of South Island electricity as part of regional development will need ta consider environmental. recreational and other uses of the water which might be lost. ’lt will be no easy task finding a middle' course between the desirability of preserving the South Island’s scenic splendours and harnessing its electricity potential.

No Government could contemplate a facile decision of such weighty matters. To rush through a decision would be to invite politicial suicide, as well as leave a huge leg" acy of ill-well for the future. Even should West Germany express interest in an energy-intensive investment in the South Island, it would still be many years yet before any Government could approve the terms of such a venture.

Too many other factors would need to be considered first.

Those ■who might now feel alarm at the prospects Mr Gair seemed to outline in his proposal need not fear that any decision could be railroaded through by a. determined Government.

Perhaps, unfortunately, the answer to the South Island’s stagnating development will not be as quick or easy as that.