Another N.Z. victory likely in Melbourne Cup today

Press, 7 November 1978, Page 23

Another N.Z. victory likely in Melbourne Cup today

From ALLAN BROWN in Melbourne

As much as they might like to, Australians are unable to hold out much hope for an end at Flemington this afternoon to the success being enjoyed bv New Zealand-breds in the Melbourne Cup.

Horses bom in New Zealand won the last four Melbourne Cups and six of the last eight. Their sheer weight of numbers suggests one will win again today, perhaps Big Skipper, Big Gamble, Karu or Dandaleith, which are owned still in New Zealand.

•| The only candidate outside! . iof the New Zealand-bred! , crowd being given much I " j chance Of success is Pan- ' amint, and he was bred in i > Ireland. , Altogether 17 of the 24i ! horses left in the Cup after , the field was made final on; i Saturday, are from New! Zealand.

i The best chance of joy for j Australian breeders looks to be Jury and he was quoted yesterday by bookmakers at odds of 14 to 1. Big Skipper, a four-year-old owned in Dunedin and trained when in New Zealand at Wingatui, is in such (good form and so thoroughly fit looking that it is hard

to imagine he will run other than very well. All that could keep him from a good showing it seems is a continuation of showery weather which unhappily for the Big Skipper camp in particular, ended on Sunday night a spell af fine, warm weather. The horse is generally regarded as needing firm footing. Big Skipper has been raced up to 2200 m in New Zealand and as far as 2600 m, the longest distance he has tried on this Australian campaign, although he lost that one after alleged interference to the winner. For all the impression his name might give, Big Skipper is of medium size or perhaps a bit less, but no smaller than very fine stayers of past years. And he has breeding on his side, being by Mellay from Kindle, one of the famous Kerbside family with which the late D. P. Wilson campaigned so long and so successfully from his Mosgiel stable.

Big Skipper is a .good age for the Cup — four-year-olds and five-year-olds have won all except a couple of the last 18 races, about an equal number. His 51kg, or 8.0, is a trifle less than most recent winners have carried and 6kg less than weight-for-age. The weather change has brought back into prominence the Hastings six-year-old, Dandaleith, which lost much of an early following when beaten in the Hotham Handicap last Saturday and encourag>;l hopes of a showing from Karu, both horses having performed well during New Zealand winters. Taksan, when racing in! New Zealand — he is now trained in Sydney and part! owned in Australia—showed! himself adept on very soft ground. The trainer of SoCalled. C. S. Hayes, is not worried about the prospect of soft going for his horse, neither is J. B. Cummings, for two at least of his runners, Panamint and Vive Velours.

The only runner left in the Cup from the stable of T. J. Smith, who entered no fewer than 46, Taksan won the Caulfield Cup two starts back and little heed need be taken of his failure meanwhile in L.K.S. Maekinnon Stakes last Saturday. Taksan is bound to be one of the first three or four favourites, especially if the track becomes soft and he

I will be the easiest runner for television watchers to follow, conspicuous through being the biggest horse in the field and the only grey. Panamint, the winner of three races at the Curragn, one of 2400 m, before being sent to Australia, ran a fair, even race in the L.K.S. Maekinnon Stakes last Sat urday, though with nothing like the pace to cope with La Mer and Family of Man. More to the point, he thoroughly satisfied his rider, R. Higgins, the winner of two Melbourne Cups already and at his best on big occasions at Flemington. Vive Velours, along with Karu, is one of the bottom weights and bred the way he is — by Hermes from Brown Brocade — and from the Cummings stables, he becomes a runner worth much respect. Arwon is well entitled to his high place in the betting market: he was beaten only inches by Taksan in the Caulfield Cup and escaped without a penalty, wsereas the other horse went up 3.5 kg from his original weight in the Cup to 55.5 kg. Arwon, which raced in New Zealand as Flash Guy, little more than usefully it must be said, has blossomed in Australia with a win in the 2400 m Herbert Power Handicap at Caulfield three starts back and a second in the 2600 m Metropolitan in Sydney the time before. Arwon does not seem to have any trouble with soft tracks, altogether he must be rated a great chance. The advent of wet weather has discouraged somewhat the connections of Our Big Gamble (Big Gamble in New Zealand).

Our Big Gamble has been a bit troubled by bruising he suffered on his trip from New Zealand but one of the part-owners, Mr H. J. Tapper, of Matamata, said yesterday he had been fairly sure that the horse on firm ground would be able to finish in the first five. “He could be short of one,” said Mr Tapper, who has been at Mornington with the horse these last few weeks, “but if the going is firm he should run well.”

Boldness, a former New Zealand five-year-old, holds good form and he shows unusual staying ability for one of his breeding — he is by Sovereign Addition which has made his name as a sire of sprinters and middle distance runners rather than 3200 m runners.