Vietnam and the Soviet Union

Press, 7 November 1978, Page 18

Vietnam and the Soviet Union

The treaty of friendship just concluded between Vietnam and the Soviet Union certainly marks a growing relationship but nothing suggests that it marks a turning point in Vietnamese affairs. Vietnam shows no sign of becoming a stooge for the Soviet Union in Asia. A more significant event occurred in June when Vietnam became a member of Comecon, the Soviet trading bloc; but Vietnam's battered economy hardly makes the country an asset to any trading bloc at the moment and fears that Vietnam would be inextricably linked to the Soviet Union and its allies are likely to be groundless. Other members of Comecon would be inclined to see Vietnam more as a liability than an asset, whatever purposes the Soviet Union itself had in mind. Vietnam is undoubtedly in a bad way. It had hoped for aid from East and West after the war, which ended in April, 1975 Western aid has been slight; China has cut off aid. Some mismanagement of the economy has occurred and floods have proved disastrous. In the south and centre of Vietnam 300,000 hectares of rice fields have been seriously affected: 100.000 hectares have been totally destroyed. Pest infestations have badly damaged other areas. In the north disasters on a similar scale are reported to have occurred. The flooding and infestation came at a time when Vietnam was already facing serious food shortages. From Hanoi the picture must look bleak. The delicate balance Vietnam held between the Soviet Union and China has given way to confrontation and armed clashes between China and Vietnam. Former Communist allies in Cambodia and Vietnam are now fighting one another. Beyond Indo-China, the Association of South-East Asian Nations is unwilling to be seen taking sides. The United States, which has the capacity to improve Vietnam’s position is

moving very slowly. It now gives its blessing to multilateral aid to Vietnam but not to bilateral aid. While the United States is still sorting out its relationship with China, Vietnam is likely to remain, well in the background in American thinking.

From time to time fears have been expressed that Vietnam would grant the Soviet Union access to the big naval base left by the Americans at Cam Ranh Bay. But all the sophisticated surveillance of which the United States is capable (and that is very sophisticated and considerable) and all the intense study of Vietnam’s moves (and that is very intense indeed) have failed to produce any evidence that Vietnam is granting the Soviet Union any military facilities. Hanoi has not been noted for its accommodating views over the last 30 or so years. Even if the Soviet Union thought that it could dominate a country which has demonstrated fierce independence and nationalism, the Soviet Union has shown itself particularly inept in such situations and unable to hold on to advantages. The consequences of Vietnams being brought within the Soviet sphere, even temporarily, are difficult to predict and New Zealand’s interests would best be served by seeing Vietnam bent upon its reconstruction and integrated into more natural trading patterns within the area. Something of a difference of opinion has developed between New Zealand and Australia on the one hand and the United States on the other about Vietnam’s needs and the speed with which these have to be met. New Zealand must hope that the United States can see its way clear soon to preventing the Vietnamese economy from falling into complete disarray. Such disorder would worsen the instability that exists already.