New approach to static population

Press, 23 October 1978, Page 2

New approach to static population

By

CEDRIC MENTIPLAY

Extensive replanning, particularly in the fields of power production, education, and health, will be necessaryafter recent figures, prepared by the Department of Statistics have indicated that New Zealand’s population is now close to becoming static. Only 10 years ago, projections indicated that New Zealand's population would be about 5M by the year 2000. The latest Department of Statistics forecast is for a population of less than 4M by that time. The Minister of National Development, Energy, and Regional Development (Mr Gair) concedes that the present population figures represent static growth. “The past average compound increase of 2 per cent a year is falling rapidly," Mr Gair said. “We must plan for this, but it must be realised that a declining birth-rate does not necessarily have the same effect in all sectors.” Mr Gair described some of the effects of a declining birthrate: It could lead to inadequate use of facilities in the education system; A shift in emphasis was likely from maternal and infant health care to geriatric welfare; “In employment we will face high growth rates as the baby boom of the 1960 s is reflected in entrants to

the work-force, and larger numbers of women remain jin that force.” It is believed that during the next five years the New I Zealand work-force will grow by about 100,000. Mr Gair said that the authorities faced the challenge of (deciding the best ways to | train and employ people “to : avoid the disadvantages of immigration.” . With other Ministers, Mr I Gair is concerned about the provisions of training and retraining of personnel, to avoid further emigration. He His also concerned about such * technological advances as the "miracle chip” computer. (This, he says, can take the jdrudgery out of many jobs, and release workers for ■ ] extra training in technical and technological skills. I If some big projects now sunder consideration are proceeded with at full capacity, : I they may cause an influx of j labour while unemployment I is still high in New Zealand, i Cabinet members say that (this could happen only when : i the required special training ‘ facilities were not available ■ in New Zealand. New Zealand has faced the largest fall in terms of trade of any O.E.C.D. coun- ; try in recent years. The nat;j ional income has fallen 14 i per cent below what it I would have been had our ; 1972 terms of trade still : i applied. Money which would • have bought $lO4 worth of

imports in 1957 would buy only $77 worth this year. ; The Cabinet has adopted: the following planning principle: “If we are to over-1 come our economic problems, we must not only] export more, but must! develop our own resources! towards self-sufficiency.” These problems are not] new, and there have beenmoves towards their solution. The National Devel-i opment Council was estab-! fished some years ago. and the New Zealand Planning Council and the Commission for the Future were established last year. The Planning Council is studying economic and social options available to New Zealand over the next] five years. Complementing this, the Commission for the Future takes a longer-term view, emphasising such issues as: How far, and in what way, should technology influence the development of New Zealanders? To what degree will our present system of government be valid in the year; 2000 and beyond? How will New Zealand be; able to pay it own way in the longer-term future? New Zealand governments have often been accused cf| pragmatism. The valid point is that pragmatism is often necessary, but long-term developments and their supporting policies must be borne in mind.