’Chance of federation 50-50 in next century’

Press, 22 May 1978, Page 6

’Chance of federation 50-50 in next century’

A “fifty-fifty chance” that New Zealand and Australia would federate in the next hundred years was predicted by Professor G. Blainey in a paper presented to the school yesterday. "If you do not want federation, fight hard for a customs union," said Professor Blainey, of the department of history at the University of Melbourne. But, he said, it would take a crisis to federate or unite the two countries.

t Some crises that could j I initiate the union were Jan alliance between China Hand Papua New 1 Guinea, occupation of the i Antarctica by a military I power, or “the coincidental coming to office of men of iwide 'nsion in Wellington - and Canberra. - “The size of the threat is r not so important as the perfjception of the threat,” Prof fessor Blainey said. “Countries are more likely etto come together when thev elfeel threatened by outside ‘nations or are jointly

di threatened by economic upefheavals. a ‘We would be jelly-minded v if we imagined in the next e hundred years this sense of y threat will not occasionally il arise.” f He also said that if the nltwo nations did join, the i union would not necessarily s'be lasting. “It is easy fur an island i-1 state to break away from a federation if it finds its y hopes have no* been fulfilled, vlor it sees the initial threat e finally receding or sees transyiport deteriorating,” he said.