Vice-President’s visit invites speculation

Press, 8 May 1978, Page 20

Vice-President’s visit invites speculation

By

STUART McMillan

* of “The Press’’

Flag-waving in various parts of the world is the usual activity for VicePresidents of the United States and it is likely that the visit to Asian countries, New Zealand and Australia, by Vice-President Walter Mondale is nothing more than that. Mr Mondale will arrive in New Zealand tomorrow and stay for 29 hours. His ability to keep to the time-table that has been mapped out for him will depend, as much as anything, on the weather. His trip through Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, Australia, and New Zealand is almost' certainly intended to reassure those countries of American interest in Asia and the Pacific. Various Asian nations have expressed fears that the United States is withdrawing from the region. The exodus from Vietnam by helicopters has assumed a symbolism of its own. Australia, too, has been vocal about its fears that the United States has not shown sufficient interest in staying in the area. It sought a visit from the American President. Symbolism is being used to counter symbolism. Mr Mondale is coming on a trip which has more symbolism than substance. No hint of any new initiatives has been

given. Probably, when he sums up his tour in Hawaii, Mr Mondale will make a strong speech pledging continued American interest in the region. Other motives for his trip may be considered. Two questions would seem relevant. What is the most significant problem that the United States faces in this area? Why should the trip be made at this time? To take the second first. Two other initiatives are occurring about the same time. One is that the Prime Minister of Japan (Mr Fukuda) has been touring the United States talking mainly about trade problems. The other is that President Carter’s National Security Adviser (Mr Zbigniew Brzezinski) will visit China, Japan, and South Korea later this month. The White House has been given a fairly intensive probing by journalists about the Brzezinski trip and has given an assurance that the trip will not be for normalisation of relations w’ith China. It is considered to be a routine trip. The Secretary of State (Mr Cyrus Vance) is said to have opposed the Brzezinski trip on the ground that it might upset the Soviet Union w'ith which he hopes to conclude

a S.A.L.T. treaty soon. President Carter shows every sign of wanting to conclude a S.A.L.T. treaty and would be very unlikely to establish normal relations with China at this time lest it upset the Russians. In any case he has so many things to worry about that China will have to wait. If any moves were afoot over Vietnam, any sounding tours would be bound to take in all the countries of the Association of South-East Asian Nations and probably some hint about a reconciliation with Vietnam would have already appeared. Which really leaves only Japan. And Japan is also the answer to the first question about the most significant problem in this area. The huge surplus in the balance of payments Japan is running is one of the biggest problems the United States —and the rest of the world —are facing. So the question may be asked whether the Mondale visit is linked with American problems about Japan? In the NZPA staff correspondent’s report from Washington about the Mondale trip, the correspondent said that officials had briefed Mr Mondale on trade for his talks in Wellington. But if New Zealand (as usual) wants to talk about trade, what does Mr Mondale want to talk about and find out?

Could his trip be to take soundings on attitudes to Japan? This is almost certainly not his primary reason for travelling. But it is highly likely that he will gather quite a lot of information about Japan—which is practically everyone’s trade problem—as he goes around. The greatest threat to world trade at the moment is what the American Congress will do if it thinks that Japan is going to be too greedy. The possibility that Japan may be at the back of American minds in the Mondale visit cannot be dismissed altogether, but the answer to the question “why now?” may lie not in considering the other visits, but in two other clues. One is that the United States has shown itself increasingly sensitive to Asian worries about its intentions and has responded with speeches by high officials recently. The Mondale trip may be the culmination of these efforts. The other clue is that the United States has been showing a heightened interest in the Pacific (a second article will discuss this). The safest assumptions are that the American VicePresident has come to wave the flag in the time-honoured tradition of Vice-Presidents and that those who are organising the trip are worrying mostly about the weather.