National’s main concern is complacency

Press, 1 May 1978, Page 16

National’s main concern is complacency

Comment from the Capital

By

CEDRIC MENTIPLAY

The past week has been notable for the number of occasions on which the President of the National Party (Mr G. A. Chapman) has stressed that under certain circumstances the National Party may lose November’s General Election. He has chided party members for criticising the Prime Ministei (Mr Muldoon!. has outlined circumstances in which persons w’ho would normally vote National might pass their votes to Social Credit, and has admitted that he and executive members of the partv are concerned about the apparent upsurge in Social Credit support, as revealed in the result of the Rangitikei by-election. There is little doubt, however. that what is really concerning Mr Chapman is complacence. . Though the clearcut 55-32 majority of the previous tw o years has gone, the National Government is still comfortably ahead in a House which has 53 National members. 32 Labour, one Social Credit and one Independent (following the defection of Mr G. P. A. Downiei

Mr Chapman emphasised the volatility of the political scene, which he highlighted in three wavs:

I. Attacks on the leadership of Mr Muldoon by party members:

2. The attempt to displace the Minister of Health (Mr Gill) from his electorate. East Coast Bavs:

3. The upsurge of support for Social Credit in the most recently published public opinion polls.

Mr Chapman may well have had in mind, if he did mention. the fac T that the “volatility” he noted is not a thing of mushroom growth. It was there in 1972, when it turned a fair National maioritv into a 5532 victorv for Labour. The fact that this was reversed in 1975 is t s»Jf a clear indication that New Zealand voters am by no means set in their

National went in largely as a positive party, in opposition to the negativism which characterised the last two years of Labour administration. In considering this today, many voters have wondered just how much blame could be placed at Labour’s door, and how much ascribed to a crazy international situation which even the messianic methods of Mr Muldoon and the National Party have failed to control internally. Mr Muldoon has been directly under attack, both from inside and from outside his party. Rightly or wrongly, he is blamed for everything, often with the grinning cynicism of which the New Zealand man-in-the-street is master.

Criticism tends to arrange itself as follows:— 1. The Muldoon financialeconomic packages have not lifted recession, though there is ample informed opinion that things would have been considerably worse without 'hem.

2. Stormy scenes in Parliament, sometimes over what began as trivia, have tended to be blamed. rightly or wrongly, on Mr Muldoon. 3. Though Mr Muldoon’s control of the abortion debate was essentially lowkey. he has been widely blamed for the resultant hardly workable legislation.

4. His intervention into the freezing workers’ dispute., though it might have been acclaimed as masterly, has alienated a large part of the farmers’ bloc.

5. The value of his “flsh-for-beef” stance against Japan is being questioned. again after the event (though perhaps here the poker hand has not yet been played out). 6. His outburst about Japanese imperialism, as evidenced bv the use of Asian Bank funds in South-East Asian and Pacific countries, has drawn criticism from more people than those who understand the facts. His announced de-

cision to withhold New Zealand's S4M contribution and "go it alone” in overseas aid will fan the flames. What Mr Chapman is trying to do, hopefully, is to make it clear that there is no rift at the core of the National Pary. He has stated, and the acting Prime Minister (Mr Taiboys) has confirmed, that National will go into the 1978 session and the 1978 General Election with Mr Muldoon as undisputed political leader. “The railying-time for National is now,” he said again at Island Bay on Wednesday night. It is somewhat of a new ploy. He is not extolling the party organisation, praising its superiority, or even outlining its virtues. He is saying, in terms of the century-old typewriter cliche. “Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of the party.” In this context, and at this time, it does not seem to hurt if the National Partv President predicts Social Credit stealing a massive percentage of votes, making “safe” National seats marginal, and perhaps even winning Rangitikei and a handful more.

The real enemies, as Mr Chapman sees them, are complacency and pique. If, in either, a normally National voter either withholds his or her vote, or gives it to Social Credit, anything can happen. The proof is that it did — in 1972.