Riots in Iran

Press, 10 April 1978, Page 16

Riots in Iran

Riots occurred in Iran last year but they appear to have spread this year as the clashes between rioters and Iranian authorities have become more severe since January. Published information about the riots and the causes of unrest is sketchy, but three separate groups seem to be involved. One is certainly Muslim—though usually described as “Marxist Muslim”; a second is concerned with human rights: a third is made up of diverse elements upset by inflation, by the general disruption of society caused by development, by the Shah himself, and by the genera) organisation of society Iran does have a political party and a Prime Minister, but the State is run by the Shah, so whatever the grounds for dissent, protests must be against the Shah.

The Shah sees his destiny as to lead Iran and to make it into a great Power. The security organisation, Savak, is ruthless and efficient. Amnesty International commented earlier this year on aspects it found about Savak’s role. In military trials of political prisoners it was allowed to give evidence it was able to extract from a prisoner: such evidence was presented in secret, and the agents could not be cross-examined. The Shah’s ability to stay in power seems closely related to the activities of Savak.

The Shah blames external forces for much of the alleged terrorism in Iran. Fervent nationalists like the Shah are given to seeing anything directed against themselves as coming from another country, but it would not be surprising if there were some external forces at work. Iran’s significance as a member of the Organisation of Pet-

roleum Exporting Countries and its general strategic position are likely to bring it to the attention of various other countries, including one of its neighbours, the Soviet Union. Yet the main cause of the blame lies in Iran itself.

The aims of the group described as Marxist Muslims and those who want fairer trials, an end to torture and an end to the heavy domestic security are by no means identical. The. second group, which includes some of the more liberal elements in the society, would be horrified to see strict customs of Islam (or communism) enforced. It is difficult to see these groups joining in any concerted campaign, so the rioting seems likely to remain scattered and disunited. Some measures have been taken to slow Iran’s rate of growth which has led to internal disruption (including, of all things, power cuts last year) and this may alleviate some of the problems causing widespread dissent. Again, the result is likely to be a lessening of tensions in time and the survival of the Shah. The West may be able to bring some pressure on the Shah to introduce reforms: the alternative of tightening security through Savak is frightening to consider.

The United States, which has supplied and apparently intends to continue to supply, Iran with vast numbers of arms, has shown every sign of wanting the Shah to survive. Two main factors govern American attitudes. One is that it wants Iran to oppose any further increase in the price of oil for some time. The other is that it approves of Iran's domination of the Arabian Gulf because this provides, in the American view, a sense of stability for the area.