A date for Mrs Thatcher

Press, 8 March 1978, Page 16

A date for Mrs Thatcher

The result of last week’s by-election in Ilford North has not made predicting the date of Britain’s next general election as easy as might have been thought The swing against Labour was such that Mr Callaghan must now question whether Labour could" win a General Election before the summer; yet the swing is not so marked that an autumn election would appear to be unsafe for the Labour Party. Mr Callaghan may yet decide to risk a May or June election if he receives, in the next two months, powerful signals of growing public support for his Government. Two more by-elections are due in April and early in May local elections will be held. A further by-election in the London constituency of Lambeth Central is due about the same time But the signals will have to be strong, for Mr Callaghan will not have forgotten that in 1970 his Labour predecessor was tempted into a June election by favourable results in the local elections and paid a price for his overconfidence.

Mr Callaghan has probably already decided that the result in Ilford North has restricted his choice to October or next year. If he does nothing before Parliament rises for its summer recess in July to renew his Government’s pact with the Liberals the odds will be strong on an October election. Mrs Thatcher expects her crucial test then. She recently warned members of her party of the dangers of “the Labour trap” and of the possibility that Mr Callaghan will use his April budget to lower taxes and to increase wages and public spending and then make a quick dash for the polling booths after a few buoyant months. But even without these Inducements which Mr Callaghan has it in his power to hold out to the voters, Labour’s prospects have improved remarkably over the last year. A stronger

pound, improved balance of payments and falling rate of inflation have already boosted Mr Callaghan’s prospects; and Britain’s economic outlook looks brighter than it has been for some years. Labour’s advantages may become more pronounced as the year progresses.

The main uncertainty is whether Mrs Thatcher will be able to exploit emotive political and social issues — Northern Ireland, Rhodesia and, above all, race and immigration in Britain — to the extent necessary to stem the economic tide w'hich is apparently running in Labour’s favour. The electors of Ilford North rejected the National Front’s overtly racist appeal. But there is some disturbing evidence that Mrs Thatcher’s covert appeal to the same fears and anxieties which, in their more virulent forms, prompted some voters to support the Front may have contributed to the success of the Conservative candidate in Ilford North. A more telling — and dangerous — test of the role race and immigration may play in the next General Election will come with the by-election in Lambeth Central at a date yet to be fixed. This electorate has a higher proportion of black and brown than Ilford North and a higher proportion of whites who see the presence of Africans, Asians and West Indians in Britain as a threat Mrs Thatcher may be tempted to use this by-election to test the efficacy of a “hard-line” on race for the Conservative Party, but Britain, and in the long run the Conservatives, will suffer if Mrs Thatcher yields to this temptation instead of fighting by-elections and the General Election, when it comes, on grounds on which the Conservatives can force an advantage without inflaming community tensions in Britain’s cities.