The waiting game with Japan

Press, 23 February 1978, Page 16

The waiting game with Japan

From the statement made yesterday by the Minister of Fisheries (Mr Bolger) it seems that the Government has come to the conclusion that Japan does not intend to make any early changes to its policies for importing primary produce. Such moves as Japan has made over New Zealand’s demands that it revise its importing policies before Japan is granted fishing access to New Zealand waters have been slight and have not tackled the central question of the Japanese policy of self-sufficiency in agriculture. The hope that some revision was possible had persisted. It has taken the present visit of the former Japanese Minister of Agriculture. Mr Zenko Suzuki, who has been holding talks in Wellington, for all hope to be abandoned for the immediate future.

The 200-mile zone will come into full effect on April 1 and no Japanese fishing vessels will be licensed for the area after that time. Mr Suzuki has offered co-operation in research but it is not yet clear whether that will depend on the licensing of fishing boats. Japanese knowledge of these waters is second to none and New Zealand would benefit from co-operation in research with Japan It would, indeed, be a happy outcome from negotiations which had the potential for straining relations seriously.

Doubtless the arguments will continue about whether this was the soundest way to approach the relationship with Japan. Certainly, the publicised demand by New Zealand that fishing access should be used as a lever for obtaining access to the Japanese market must have stiffened Japanese resistance

to an early capitulation. That the negotiations cannot be concluded successfully by April 1 is no proof that the approach has failed —merely that it has not yet succeeded.

Waiting for the right moment to resume negotiations is all that New Zealand can do at this stage. Japan presents a huge market and the Japanese who now pay high prices for meat could certainly afford the prices New Zealand would want. The moment may come earlier than expected. While Japan aims at “self-sufficiency” in agriculture —driven by the understandable fear of lack of supply, among other motives—-face-saving redefinitions of “selfsufficiency” may be expected in Japan sooner rather than later.

A respected academic. Professor K. Hemmi, head of the department of agricultural economics at the University of Tokyo, holds a different view from that accepted in—or promulgated by—official Japanese circles. Professor Hemmi, after a recent visit to New Zealand, holds that as Japanese fishermen lose access to fishing grounds because of 200-mile zones, more meat must be provided in the national diet; but Japanese consumers would be reluctant to pay more for beef produced in the expensive Japanese manner. The next few months should show how urgently the Japanese Government regards the need to secure imports of fish or meat. New Zealand has certainly preserved its limited bargaining power with Japan in the meantime, and should now be prepared to wait patiently for the right moment to resume negotiations.