THE PRESS FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1978. A way ahead for Rhodesia

Press, 17 February 1978, Page 12

THE PRESS FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 17, 1978. A way ahead for Rhodesia

T..e talks in Salisbury have ended in an agreement, not a settlement. The next crucial question must be the composition of an interim government which will have to draw up the detail of the new Rhodesian constitution and bill of rights, and lead the country to its first multi-racial General Election. Not until that election has been held, and has been seen to be held fairlv. can Rhodesians expect a significant change in the almost universal hostility towards them from the rest of the world.

The agreement between Mr Smith. Bishop Muzorewa, Mr Sithole, and Chief Chirau still gives something less than a vote of equal value to every Rhodesian citizen But it does eive every Rhodesian a vote: it can be made to produce a fair, popular, stable black government. A constitutional blocking device will ensure that the 3 per cent of Rhodesians who are white will retain, for the next 10 years. 28 ner cent of the seats in Parliament. The black leaders attempted to reduce this concession to white opinion, but Mr Smith could hardly cnmnlv if he honed to retain the confidence of his white electorate.

The two guerrilla organisations which make up the so-called Ponular Front refused to take part in the talks. They can be exnected to intensify the war in an attemnt to demonstrate that no lasting Rhodesian settlement is possible without their narticination The other recent talks on Rhode'ia. between the Ponular Front and British and American representatives in Malta, showed that the Ponular Front will not accept a settlement in which its leaders and guerrillas are not accorded a dominant role Rut it is a sign of the goer, rillas* weakness, not their strength, that they insist on clinging to their guns rather than risk testing their cause and their popularity by taking part in an election.

No reliable test of black Rhodesian oninion has ever been held. On the evidence of the sunnnrt at rallies for the various black leaders, and of the numbers of Rhodesians working and fighting for Mr Smith’s regime, the overwhelming maioritv of blacks do not support the guerrillas.

When an interim government is formed it should still attemnt to bring the guerrilla movements into the democratic processes, offering them an amnesty and opportunities to compete

as political parties in a General Election Otherwise the suspicion must remain that the agreement is less than fair. The guerrillas' claim to be the only true representatives of black Rhodesians will continue to receive support from outsiders whose interests do not necessarily coincide with those of the maioritv of Rhodesians or who see some advantage in continuing ferment . in southern Africa.

In the web of Rhodesian affairs tribal loyalties and personal animosities have an important part. No agreement will satisfy all the parties. If the internal settlement is applied fairlv. Rhodesia will achieve what is probably the best possible approximation of a democratically elected maioritv government. That should be preferred, at least by the Western democracies, to the alternative- replacing the present white minority regime with a black minority regime kent in power bv its armv and its support from the communist bloc The attitude of the British Government will he crucial in the next few months British negotiators have behaved as though the guerrillas are invincible and must he appeased That is a wav to ensure that a civil war of h'acks against blacks gains intensity in Rhodesia

No British Government, and certainly not a Labour Government, will want to admit that after 12 vears Mr Smith has succeeded where successive British leaders have failed to reach a fair cottjprnAnt between Rhodesia’s communities But if th® new agreement can be shown, in a few months, to have achieved such a result, it will be han? for Britain not to acknowledge the fact

The rest of th° world continues to regard Rhodesia, finally, as a British responsibility If Britain accents that a fair settlement has been reached, other non-communist countries will accent it too. The new Rhodesian government could then be recognised, sanctions lifted, and even Rhodesia’s black neighbours would find it hard to continue to iustifv sunport for guerrillas fighting against a freelv elected black government. If these things come to pass, the guerrilla war will not suddenly stop. It will gradually wither away That prospect should please all who have clamoured for “maioritv rule” in Rhodesia. But the “ifs” along the way remain daunting.