The Russians are coming

Press, 28 November 1977, Page 16

The Russians are coming

By

STUART McMILLAN

of “The Press”

The crunch in dealing with the Soviet Union over fishing will come within the next few weeks. Taits will be held between Zealand officials and Soviet officials as well as between New Zealand and South Korean officials. The outcome will almost certainly be that New Zealand will have a great many more Soviet fishing vessels around the country and at its ports from then on. The talks with the ScKiet Union are likely to be the more complex. Although South Korea is likely to get a licence to fish within the 200-mile zone, the allocation mav be smaller and the facilities smaller. South Korea has not been fishing in these waters for as long as have the Russians and their needs are the less. The curious aspect is tha» the present Government has frequentlv been highly critical of the Soviet Union, and the Prime Minister (Mr Multi oo n ) has appeared suspicious to the extent that it seemed that he was trying to plunge the world back into the era of the Cold War. , „ His statements last year about the presence of Soviet ships in the Pacific and in the Indian Ocean, his comments about New Zealand; being within the range of Soviet missiles, his constant reiterations of New Zealand’s allegiance to the Western world, and his description of New Zealand as being one of the most outspoken anti-Communist States all seem to contradict the obvious encouragement the Soviet Union has been getting to fish in these " a itts probably less para

doxical than part of a longterm strategy on the part of the Prime Minister. Mr Muldoon would want, first of all, to reassure New Zealanders themselves about a close trading involvement with the Soviet Union. What better way than to express constant anti-Soviet and anti-Communist sentiments? Some of the deepest suspicions about the Soviet Union held in New Zealand would be found among members of Mr Muldoon’s own party. He had not only to reassure the electorate at large, but also the National Party. In September of this year the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs (Mr Taiboys) was to be seen in the same role. In the major foreign policy addresses made during that month he expressed an abiding suspicion towards the Soviet Union but also talked about trading with that countrv. The whole tone of those foreign policy statements in September was one of explanation, almost an appeal to some of the party faithful as well as New Zealand at large. The second element in the strategy was to reassure New Zealand’s friends and allies that New Zealand was not. because of its trading interests, “selling out” to the Soviet Union. The links in trading are likely to he extensive. Mr Muldoon did not want New Zealand’s traditional friends to get the wrong idea. Hence the strong anti-Communist statements. Besides relations with those countries, of which Australia, the United States, and Britain would be the most significant. Mr Muldoon wanted to keep on side

with China both for the visit which he made last year and for the difficulties over sporting ties with Taiwan. Few noises are as good to the Chinese leadership’s ears as strong anti-Soviet noises. Mr Muldoon obliged. He got his successful visit to China and managed to stay out of trouble that was too deep over Taiwan. The fourth major element in the strategy was a “rqboff” of the second. While New Zealand was making anti-Soviet noises, its plight as a trading nation was also emphasised. If there were some trading concessions to be gained from others to avoid New Zealand’s forming extensive links with the Soviet Union, what harm was there in that for New Zealand? While this strategy which has been followed for near enough to two years, can be observed, the reasons behind it are less obvious. To some extent it might have seemed that the turning towards the Soviet Union over fishing was done out of a sense of pique because Japan would not play ball over granting access for New Zealand’s agricultural products. But the Soviet Union has, since 1970 fished these waters and those further South. Under the agreements being reached by the Law of the Sea Conference, traditional fishing has to be taken into account. So the Soviet Union stood some chance of obtaining fishing rights in any case. The serious consideration to the Soviet application was not simply because of the attitude of the Japanese. The Soviet Union has been taking about as much fish as

The striking aspect of the attitude ,of the Soviet Union has been that it has been buying meat from New Zealand in increasing quantities. The latest figures are that in the last year the Soviet Union has bought New Zealand produce worth SI4SM and New Zealand has bought in return Soviet goods worth SSM. This balance of trade in New Zealand’s favour cannot be explained away sufficiently by saying that the Soviet Union needs New Zealand’s beef and wool. There is no shortage of beef in the world and no shortage of countries wanting to sell it.

In spite of the trade imbalance, the pressures on New Zealand to buy more from the Soviet Union have not been intense. They have been there, and the agreement for New Zealand to take Lada cars is the result of it But it has been clear that the Soviet Union wanted something else from New Zealand. During the Labour Government in New Zealand, an approach was made for a fishing facility. New Zealand rejected that approach and the Soviet Union, in a halfhearted way turned to Tonga, raising alarm in both New Zealand and Australia. What has been made clear to New Zealand is that the Soviet Union wants both the right to fish in these waters and the right to have vessels serviced. This Government, looking at the vast Soviet market wanting protein, has seen it to New Zealand’s advantage to keep talking to the Russians. (A second article will discuss what the Soviet Union may seek, what it may get, and what this means for New Zealand.)