Fraser keeps Australia guessing

Press, 4 October 1977, Page 40

Fraser keeps Australia guessing

By

STUART McMILLAN

of “The Press"

The one man in Australia who could dampen speculation about an early election — perhaps in December — is adding fuel to the fires instead. The Prime Minister (Mr Fraser) need only give the word that there will be no election this year and that would be that. But when he visited Queensland last week, he sounded every inch the election campaigner. He also launched a stinging attack on Mr Bill Hayden, the Federal Treasurer in the Whitlam Government and Mr Whitlam’s chosen successor as leader of the Australian Labour Party. To a backbencher of his own party, who was trying to dissuade him from an early election, he replied that he thought the options should remain open. Political and economic factors are probably influencing Mr Fraser. First, some are predicting that the economic situation is going to get worse. That means Mr Fraser would be in poor shape to go to the polls when an election for the House of Representatives is due at the end of next year.

A leaked memorandum from the Reserve Bank contains some gloomy predictions. It says that unemploy-

ment is likely to rise from 5.3 per cent of the work force to 6 per cent; that short-term interest rates would probably rise in spite of Government promises; that weekly eamings would rise by 10 per cent to 11 per cent; that credit would tighten, that the Gross National Product would increase by only 1.3 per cent instead of the budget forecast of 2 per cent.; and that company profits would rise by 20 per cent. The Reserve Bank’s report, is only one set of predictions, but it has weight and creates scepticism about contrary Government predictions.

At the beginning of next year another flood of schoolleavers will come on to the labour market and few jobs will be available for them. The problem of unemployed youth is felt strongly in Australia and Mr Fraser probably feels that he can do without any increase in feeling. Second, an election for half the Senate has to be held before June. Although all the senators were elected in May of 1975 after the double dissolution of the Australian Parliament, under the Constitution half of them have to face an election after three years. The numbers of the

Liberal-Country Party coalition and of the Labour Party in the Senate are close. If the voters used the halfSenate election to protest against the Government, the coalition might lose control of the Senate and face what the Labour Party faced during its terms of office — a Senate controlled by the Opposition. Third, Mr Fraser would probably like to have an election while Mr Whitlam is still leader of the Labour Party. He is believed to feel that Mr Whitlam might be unable to lead the Labour Party to victory in an election. By the end of next year Mr Hayden may well have taken over the leadership. This change is unlikely before the end of this year. Fourth, Mr Fraser may feel that uranium is presenting him with an issue that could deflect the attention of voters away from the economy. The Labour Party conference has put an indefinite ban on the mining and exporting of uranium and the Australian Council of Trade Unions has called for a referendum on the subject. Not only might the riches to be had from uranium have some electoral appeal, but union opposition to mining and exporting might allow Mr Fraser to campaign on the issue of who runs the country.

In spite of these factors, it is probably a little early to assume that there will be an

election in December. Mr Fraser and his party have to think of their credibility and they might be seen as opportunists if they call an early election after the things they have said in the past about putting the economy right. Moreover, Mr Fraser may have to pay some attention to his backbenchers. In the huge swing to the coalition in 1975, a great many Liberal or Country Party candidates gained seats; they will not wish to risk these seats while they have a year of their tenure left.

Mr Fraser may also have to be careful of others in his own party. His position has probably been weakened slightly by the resignation in August of one of his Ministers, the Attorney-General, Mr Bob Ellicott. The full effect of the resignation is not clear, but Mr Fraser would be unwilling to see any further resignations.

Some of these criticisms might be muted if an election were held in the early months of next year instead of late this year. The House of Representatives and half the Senate could go to the polls and the Government could bank on the voters not making a mere protest vote. Mr Fraser may not have made up his mind. He faces an interesting political dilemma. My own guess is that he will seek a House of Representatives election with the half-Senate election in the middle of next year.