THE PRESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 4, 1977. Time and Rhodesia

Press, 4 October 1977, Page 40

THE PRESS TUESDAY, OCTOBER 4, 1977. Time and Rhodesia

That Mr lan Smith, Prime Minister of Rhodesia, went to Zambia to talk to President Kaunda about a peace settlement in Rhodesia is a mark of the seriousness with which Mr Smith is now treating the circumstances of his country. Not that much came of it. President Kaunda appears to be putting some hope in the latest settlement terms put forward by Britain and the United States. In the meantime, guerrillas will continue to train in Zambia to fight in Rhodesia. In the latest peace proposals Mr Smith is faced with the demand for a regular force under the command of Field Marshal Lord Carver, of Britain, composed of guerrilla troops with some white Rhodesian troops, until elections are held.

Time is not on the side of the white Rhodesians, who strongly support Mr Smith. Clashes between Rhodesian armed forces and the guerrilla forces occur almost daily. The toll of the dead mounts. Even if the most optimistic reports coming from the Government side of who is winning the war are believed—and intelligence reports place the guerrilla forces in Rhodesia only at 3600—the continuation of the fighting will not serve the whites well. The longer the war lasts, the more determined the guerrillas will be, the more they will come to view their fighting not as a last resort measure but as a way of life. Their purpose will become less and

less an effort to obtain justice and more of a struggle to obtain military and political power by force of arms for the particular group with which they are associated. Continued fighting on these lines might mean that a series of civil wars will break out.

Although Mr Smith’s Rhodesian Front Party won all the 50 white seats in the 66-seat Parliament in the recent General Election, too many whites are leaving the country for Mr Smith’s peace of mind. In August, 1604 Europeans left Rhodesia and 598 arrived. So far this year 11,685 Europeans have left and 3872 have arrived. Taking the natural increase of the white population in Rhodesia into account, this still means that the population is shrinking at the rate of 9000 a year. This is a considerable number out of the total white population of 268,000 in a country with a black population of 6,500,000.

The Europeans who stay understandably want some sense of security. The trouble is that the longer the fighting goes on, the harder will be the demands of the guerrillas and their leaders. What Mr Smith seems ready to accept now would have proved acceptable to the black nationalists several years ago: what seems unacceptable to Mr Smith today may seem to be too little to satisfy the aspirations of black people tomorrow.