THE PRESS FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 1977. Mr Smith’s new strength

Press, 2 September 1977, Page 12

THE PRESS FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 2, 1977. Mr Smith’s new strength

Mr lan Smith’s conspicuous success in the Rhodesian elections may be much more conducive to a settlement with the African nationalists than appears at first. Although the Europeans in Rhodesia have overwhelmingly supported Mr Smith’s party in its declaration to resist the settlement being canvassed by Britain and the United States, his success disposes of those European politicians in Salisbury who would have resisted almost any settlement at all. So long as Mr Smith continues to acknowledge the uselessness of a long war against black nationalist guerrillas, he has the political authority now to reach almost any settlement that appeals to him.

Mr Smith’s weakness lies in finding a sufficiently effective African leader with whom to negotiate. Bishop Muzorewa won the esteem of the majority of Africans when, as leader of the United African National Council, he and others persuaded the British Government, through the Pearce Commission, that black Rhodesians would not settle for a scheme for Rhodesia’s legitimate independence that did not include majority rule. Unfortunately for Mr Smith, the bishop is unable to exploit his continuing popularity among black Rhodesians through an effective political organisation The other African leader with whom Mr Smith is apparently negotiating is the Rev. NdabanIngi Sithole, who has won-over several of the bishop’s lieutenants to his own rival council. Mr Sithole has the political aptitude that Bishop Muzorewa lacks: but he wants for allies both inside and outside Rhodesia Until Mr Smith can persuade these

men to support a settlement Rhodesia stands little chance of peace. If he fails to do so, Mr Smith will condemn Rhodesia to a war between the Euro peans and Communist-supported guerrillas: indeed, he will be encouraging circumstances in which communist influence is bound to flourish. Rhodesia has probably passed the point at which the British colony of Kenya was able to acquire independence and majority rule 17 years ago, without undue disruption of the lives of its white minority. Too much hostility has been aroused on both sides in Rhodesia and among its neighbours. Mr Smith must therefore make impressive concessions; but he will achieve nothing unless he concedes almost immediate universal suffrage.

Since it is now virtually certain that Mr Smith will have none of the British and American plan, almost the only settlement that is likely to succeed is one in which prompt elections would be held, elections giving the so-called moderates, Mr Sithole and Bishop Muzorewa, the chance to put up candidates throughout Rhodesia. At the same time. Mr Smith will have to allow the guerrilla movements some role in an election. for they will almost certainly continue to brand the moderates as “puppets.” But, if enfranchised Africans turned out to vote in strength, that charge would be discredited. Provided Mr Smith acts quickly, his security forces should be able to maintain sufficient order to enable the electorate to vote in peace A delay of even a few months will probably remove even this hope for a democratic transfer of power in Rhodesia.