Japan watches U.S. on South Korea

Press, 30 December 1976, Page 10

Japan watches U.S. on South Korea

By

MARK MURRAY in Tokyo

As President-elect Jimmy Carter prepares to take office in Washington one of Japan’s primary concerns is the new' American policy towards South Korea.

A suggestion from Mr Carter during the Presidential campaign that he would consider the possibility of withdrawing part or all of the U.S. military force in Korea has caused uneasiness in Tokyo. The Japanese see America's military commitment to Seoul as very important in maintaining the power balance in north-east Asia.

It. is an importance far out of proportion to the actual physical presence — 42,000 army and air force staff with nuclear weapons (although admittedly the U.S. seventh fleet is not far away, elements of it being based in Japan). Japanese officials have been concerned at the growing Washington scandal involving Korean influence peddling on Capitol Hill. They, like many Seoul officials now, fear the backlash of this scandal could seriously hurt the Korean cause — primarily by silencing Congressmen who might otherwise have spoken up against any Carter Administration attempt to reduce the American military commitment to Korea. Recently the Foreign Minister (Mr Zentaro Kosaka) asked about Japan's attitude to the Mr Carter withdrawal statement, explained: "We re-

gard the situation on the Korean peninsula as very very complex, reflecting an intricate power balance between the United States, China, and the Soviet Union. "We feel any move to upset the equilibrium might cause trouble in the Korean peninsula. However, we will continue to talk to the United States on the assumption there will be no such move to upset the equilibrium and create a crisis.”

And Japan’s Ambassador to the United States, Mr Fumihiko Togo (son of one of the men hanged after World War II as a war criminal) followed this up by expressing the hope that a Carter Administration would keep up American nolitical. economic and military participation in Asian affairs. “Japan and the free countries of Asia think it’s verv important that the United States continue to participate in Asian affairs. The envoy said that he particularly felt no American military forces should be withdrawn from South Korea until the Koreans felt their security needs had been satisfied. And harking on the same power balance theme stated earlier by his Foreign Minister. Mr Togo said that "when the United States makes any decision on anv level of its presence in Asia, we hope it has in mind this balance of power.

‘‘Some argue that they (the South Koreans) are strong enough to cope with the North Koreans. I don’t think it is as simple as that.

“If the United States has to withdraw ground forces forces from Korea, we hope it will be done after satisfying the Koreans, so that this balance of power will not be disturbed abruptly.” No one outside South Korea believes that the Communist North will launch an invasion in the foreseeable future. There are the external restraints believed being applied by Peking and Moscow, plus internal upheavals in the Pyongyang leadership over who is eventually going to succeed ailing President Kim Il Sung. There is also a dispute within the North Korean Government over the high defence spending that is bleeding the country white -— believed to be the prime reason behind the recent, scandal in Europe in which North Korean diplomats were expelled for drug and liquor glingAnalysts say r that there is a more pragmatic section of the Pyongyang Government that wants to ease up on military confrontation with the South in favour of building up industry and rescuing the economy from the present appalling mess (Pyongyang has reneged in foreign trade debts running into billions of dollars, the Japanese being among the biggest creditors).

By contrast, the South is booming. After the Korean war it was regarded as a “basket case" among the developing nations, a country that no amount of international aid could save. The South Koreans, however, have built up a powerful economy that makes it one of the best investments outside the industrialised West for foreign capital (and better than some of the ailing European economies). Its exports are becoming highly’ competitive on world markets and leading economists see no sign of the boom ending.

All that, of course, could end overnight if the South

were plunged into war again. Military experts reckon that by 1980 the South will have modernised its forces and be more than a match for anything the North might throw at it.

But the next four years are crucial. There is a fear in Tokyo that, if the United States withdraws now Pyongyang might misread the signal and be tempted to make a desperate last-chance strike at the South.

The Korean peninsula points like an arrow at the sprawling Japanese archipeligo. A Communist presence in the South would be a threat Tokyo could not ignore. Defence officials in Japan

have been quietly warning that if the United States does pull out of Korea. Japan will have to completely rethink its defence plan. Implicit in this is a threat to build up a larger military’ force which could create unease in many parts of Asia. Japanese, in general, don't want that. But the present low-key defence policy is based primarily on a continuing American military commitment to South Korea, and lack of conflict there.

Tokyo hopes that Mr Jimmy Carter will bear this in mind before making any major foreign policy’ decisions on north-east Asia.

—O.F.N.S. Copyright