THE PRESS THURSDAY, DECEMBER 9, 1976. Japan's uncertain politics

Press, 9 December 1976, Page 20

THE PRESS THURSDAY, DECEMBER 9, 1976. Japan's uncertain politics

The poor showing of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan’s elections was not a surprise. The party went into the elections, its name tarnished by the association of some of its members with the Lockheed scandal, divided within itself, and unable to claim, as it has generally been able to claim in the past, that the economy has flourished under its management.

The rule of the party is not, however, immediately threatened. It failed to gain a majority of the seats in the Diet, but the support of conservative independents, many of them Liberal Democrats in disguise, will ensure its continued dominance. The Socialists and the moderate Opposition parties made significant gains, but a coalition of the other parties which could command sufficient support in the Diet to be able to rule will prove impossible to forge.

The Liberal Democratic Party will have to struggle on as the Government of Japan, but its ability to hold together is in serious doubt. The Prime Minister, Mr Miki, needed a strong showing by the Liberal Democratic Party as a whole, or by his own faction within the party, to secure his position and to be able to beat off the expected post-election challenge for the leadership of the party. His rival for the post of Prime Minister is Mr Takeo Fukuda, who resigned as Deputy Prime Minister early in November. Mr Miki has apparently failed in his effort to make a forceful appeal to the people to shore up his position against the intrigues of factions stronger than his own within the party. He is extremely vulnerable

in the almost inevitable scuffles within the party in the wake of its worst showing at the polls for almost two decades.

If Mr Miki remains leader of the party and Prime Minister of Japan, it will be only because the factions opposed to him are afraid to push too strongly and thereby seem to want to smother any further investigation of the Lockheed scandal. This would label the party for good as the party of corruption and jobbery.

Whether the party elders and the leaders of other factions in the party are willing to leave the party, and the country, in Mr Miki’s hands should become clear once the party convention has met. It is expected to meet this month. Without the continuing support of the party, Mr Miki would probably find it very difficult to win an election in the new Diet for the position of Prime Minister. Mr Fukuda’s support in the Diet remains uncertain.

Japan is in for a confused period of adjustment, probably lasting until the Upper House elections next July and even until a new Diet election later in the year. It is too soon to say whether, once this period is over, Japanese politics will enter a new era in which national popularity will play a greater role than intrigues within the parties in selecting the nation’s leaders. Principles and issues may yet play as important a part in national elections as the privileges and benefits that a member can secure for his constituents. The adjustment may well be farreaching.