“Oil price leap” in 1990s

Press, 15 October 1976, Page 1

“Oil price leap” in 1990s

The most serious energy problem facing New Zealand during the next 50 years will be keeping up a secure supply of liquid fuel, according to the chairman of the Energy Research and Development Committee (Dr C. J. Maiden). This problem was much more important than the nuclear power issue, he told a meeting in Hamilton yesterday of the Waikato and Bay of Plenty Manufacturers’ Association. Dr Maiden was explaining some conclusions of ‘•scenarios'’ of three future energy alternatives for New Zealand developed during the last year by the Energy Research Group. The group — three engineers. an economist and a geographer, led by the executive director of the

Energy Research and Development Committee (Dr G. Harris) — is financed by the committee. The scenarios are entitled “Continuation” (of present growth, with emphasis on material wealth), “Low New Zealand Pollution” (emphasis on the environment) and “Limited Growth” (emphasis on resources). Dr Maiden said each scenario offered its advantages, but none was a satisfactory solution to the problem of liquid fuel supply. The only available liquid fuel alternative was alcohol produced from trees. This seemed to have great potential, but its cost was still unknown. It also meant that three times the total land area of the present exotic forests in New Zealand would have to be devoted to “energy farming.” Dr Maiden said that world crude oil production

looked likely to reach its peak before the end of the century. Dramatic rises in oil prices seemed very probable in the 19905, possibly in the late 1980 s. Of nuclear power, Dr Maiden said that this was needed only in the “Continuation” scenario.

The Energy Research Group had shown that viable non-nuclear futures were open to New Zealand, and that there could be significant economic growth in such futures. In the “Low New Zealand Pollution” scenario, three times the present level of gross national product was achieved by 2025 without nuclear power (in the "Continuation” scenario, the G.N.P. would increase to about five times its present value in the same period).

Dr Maiden said the scenarios showed that the combined effects of several policies could markedly reduce future energy require-

ments per dollar of G.N.P., while maintaining significant economic growth. These measures were:— Employing conservation measures and new technologies to reduce energy requirements in industry, transport, offices and homes. Increasing the efficiency of converting primary energy into consumer energy. Finding substitutes for energy-intensive imports. Exporting some primary products beyond the energy-intensive processing, and processing other primary product:: beyond the energy-intensive stage to raise the ratio of value added to energy used. Shifting industrial development towards manufacturing industries that did not have heavy direct or indirect energy requirements, and which could earn enough foreign exchange collectively to finance their own imports.