It could happen here, experts say

Press, 15 September 1976, Page 21

It could happen here, experts say

If an earthquake hits Christchurch, Charlton Heston will not play the leading role. The fires you see will not be on the six o’clock news — they will be out your window. The purpose of this account is not to intimidate or to frighten. It is merely a warning of what scientists and Civil Defence personnel agree is a real and present danger, presented in the hope that citizens will familiarise themselves with their responsibilities .in the event of a disaster.

Since 1840, earthquakes have claimed the lives of 287 people in New Zealand. Grim as it may sound, that figure is extremely low considering the frequency and intensity of seismic upheavals in this part of the world.

In an average year, about 100 earthquakes hit New Zealand. The worst, the Hawke’s Bay ’quake of 1931, killed 255. All the other ’quakes combined have killed only 32. But that good fortune may not continue.

“We have been extremely lucky," says Mr Murray Lowry, a seismologist for the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research in Wellington. “New Zealand is earthquake country, and the fact that more have not

been killed is merely a coincidence.

“A killer ’quake is the result of a combination, of circumstances,” he adds. “Generally, they occur close to the surface in a heavily populated area. There is usually a dam that breaks, or a landslide or tidal wave, or other factors which add to the disaster.”

North Canterbury, according to Mr Lowry, has as high a potential for a disastrous ’quake as anywhere in New Zealand. “Seismic action in the North Island’ is frequently very deep, sometimes up to 33km. In the South Island, the average depth is only 12km.” Because of the low population density in the South Island, several major 'quakes have passed without causing death. “The North Island has more ’quakes but, since they are deeper, they are more easily forgotten,” Mr Lowry says. The North Canterbury district geologist (Mr G. Warren) says that it is impossible to predict the likelihood of a mjor earthquake hitting Christchurch, but he adds that it is “undoubtedly a possibility, despite the distance from the main Alpine fault,” which runs roughly parallel to the Southern Alps. “The whole North Canterbury area has that potential'. Historical records show that earthquake distribution is not far off random. It is not so closely related to fault lines that we have to assume that is the only place where a major ’quake could happen."

Mr Warren says a tsunami can occur any place

between Christchurch and Wellington. “The size of the wave would depend upon the contour of the Shoreline. Even a small wave, if it were to come from the North-east, could be funnelled into a colossal wave by the topography as it approached Lyttleton.”

At present, techniques for predicting earthquakes and warning the public have not been developed in New Zealand. “If you ask me if the public in Christchurch would have any warning before a disaster, the answer is a categorical no,” Mr Warren says. “And that goes for any place in New Zealand.’’ The Civil Defence officer in Christchurch (Mr D. J. Brunton) says an earthquake is the most likely disaster we could have. “The problem is, it is impossible to have a definite plan for an earthquake. We have a general disaster plan, but until we know where the damage is we cannot be more specific than that.” Mr Brunton calls the central city area a real trouble zone. “Every tall building is a potential death trap. There is no such thing as an ‘earth-quake-proof’ building.” Many Christchurch buildings and homes were erected before the Second World War, when little was known of earthquakeresistant construction. “There has been a lot of progress in this in the last 20 years,”- says Mr Brunton, “but a major earthquake could destroy any building in the city.”

The Civil Defence has four full-time employees in Christchurch. In the event of a disaster, Mr Brunton says, about 600 volunteer wardens would be activated — as soon as the security of their families permitted.

“About a thousand key personnel would be responsible for setting up a disaster network. These people would, in turn, contact other volunteers, including nurses, youth groups, various welfare organisations, and even motor-cycle clubs. I estimate that about 10,000 people would be involved,’ 8 he says. It is important to remember that Civil Defence cannot provide aid instantaneously. "We are not geared for instant action,” Mr Brunton says. “During the first few hours of a diaster, the only people you can count on for help are the people around you, and you just have to hope they know what to do.

“Our biggest enemy is public apathy,” says Mr Brunton. “Despite the odds, and despite everything the geologists tell us, there is an attitude of it can’t happen here.” Until it does . ..