Another 1948 in the U.S.?

Press, 6 September 1976, Page 16

Another 1948 in the U.S.?

Twenty-eight years ago President Truman confounded American political pundits by winning a presidential election he was expected to lose. Not unnaturally. President Ford has already invoked Mr Truman’s success, observing that Mr Truman, like himself, was running against Congress as much as his opponent Mr Ford apparently intends to use his vetoing of a large number of bills in the last two years to present himself as the country’s best hope of escaping the clutches of “ big government ”. This may be a spurious proposition, at least as the Republicans have so far presented it: but it is one that may win some votes for Mr Ford. He may also win support by emphasising that under his leadership America is a nation at peace, on its way to genuine prosperity, and with integrity and candour restored to its government Mr Ford’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention showed him to be more effective as a campaigner than many expected, and a foreign policy crisis would probably boost his stocks further. Although the odds still favour Mr Carter. 1948 remains a reminder that no election is settled until the ballots are counted. Much may yet depend on the showing each candidate makes in their public television debates, the first such debates

since the Kennedy-Nixon debates 16 years ago. Mr Carter is already much less open than he was to the charge that he is fuzzy on many issues. Although Mr Carter is a newcomer to the national scene, he is no longer an unknown quantity, and in clarifying what he stands for in the next few weeks he has much more latitude than the President. Mr Ford cannot depart too conspicuously from the policies he is already following. especially in foreign affairs. Many outside the United States may be relieved not to have the responsibility of evaluating the characters, philosophies, and policies of the two men. But the results of the election will have some significance here. Given a Democratic President and a Congress controlled by Democrats the social ills which continue to wrack America, especially urban America, would probably receive sounder and more speedy treatment But the risk of their programmes—although many Democrats will strenuously deny it—is continuing inflation. It is difficult for America’s allies and trading partners to weigh the long-term benefits of social stability in America against the shorter-term benefits of a sound economic recovery in the United States. That recovery implies much for the world-wide trading prospects of such countries as New Zealand.