Soviet feelers cause alarm in London

Press, 14 June 1976, Page 2

Soviet feelers cause alarm in London

NZPA staff corres. London The Soviet Union’s feelers to Tonga which are worrying the New Zealand Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) have also caused alarm among senior British defence experts who have watched the Russian build-up in the Indian Ocean over the last eight years. “It all follows the usual pattern,” said a 'Whitehall military expert. “This is how it all began in the Indian Ocean. "They will not be rebuffed easily,” he said. "They are very persistent.” Details of the Russian approach to Tonga are sketchy. But King Taufa’ahau Tupou IV has been reported in London as confirming that the Russians have offered to build an international airport and other facilities in Tonga. The Soviet Embassy in Wellington has rejected speculation about a RuSsian base in the Pacific, but an official said that talks on fishing and civil aviation as “areas where there could be some co-operation” have taken place. British and African sources say that the Russians’ initial approach to Tonga follows similar lines to those used when the Soviet navy made its first appearances in the Mediterranean in 1963 and in the Indian Ocean in 1968. The fear is that the Russians are now seeking a toehold in the Pacific. Tonga is ideally situated. The sources quote the former American Secretary for Defence (Mr James Schlesinger), who outlined the Soviet emergence in the Indian Ocean in submissions to a Senate committee a year ago. As early as 1962, Russia agreed to assist the Government of Somalia in constructing harbour facilities at Berbera, a small port opposite Aden, overlooking the entrance to the Red Sea, Mr Schlesinger said.

The harbour was completed in 1969, and by 1971, 16 Russian ships paid visits. A Soviet-Somali agreement was signed in 1972, and Russian use of Berbera facilities was stepped up.

Berbera, a new 15,000 ft runway under construction, is now being extended into a huge military base with every facility for the Russians to operate missile-equipped ships, submarines, and aircraft in and over the Indian Ocean. Talk of the Russians offering to build an international airport and/or establish a fishing base in Tonga comes as no real surprise to the experts in London. The Russian tactics are usually as follows, they say: First, moves for a fishing agreement, followed by visits from Soviet trawlers. There is then a request for servicing facilities, which, if granted, establish a naval presence. These approaches are usually backed up by offers of substantial aid and a friendship agreement, often coupled with proposals for help in building airfields and other facilities, which pave the way for numbers of Soviet technicians and advisers.

Tonga is a "sitter” for such approaches, the experts say. The Soviet subAntarctic fishing fleet is looking for additional port facilities which New Zealand has refused.

The recently published "Strategic Survey” of the London-based Institute for Strategic Studies said that the Soviet fishing fleets are committed under the 1976-80 fiveyear plan to increase catches even though the world total is falling. With the imminent prospect of 200-mile territorial water zones being declared, "it appears that securing fishing rights in other States’ zones will become a major Soviet concern in the future," the survey said. It was a concern which might well have considerable security implications if, in exchange, for fishing rights, the Soviet Union or another major Power were to offer coastal States a measure of maritime protection for their

new area of economic exploitation.

British and American sources in London go so far as to describe Tonga as a potential test case for Russia's continued global expansion. Whatever the initial attitude of the King of Tonga to the Russian overtures, the Soviet Union will not be satisfied with a flat rejection. “The Russians are not only persistent but persuasive," one source said. The RuSsian offers must have some attraction for the King. Tonga, which has a population of about 92,000, and has been independent for six years, is not at present on the main Pacific tourist runs, and an international airport would help to right this. The Tongans are also keen to get foreign investment to reduce their dependence on their only exports, copra and bananas.

The United States is likely to look to New Zealand and Australia for help in persuading Tonga against allowing the Russians to get a South Pacific toehold.

With an eye to maintaining the balance in the Indian Ocean and elsewhere, the Americans say that the burden on them is very heavy. They would like to see Australia and New Zealand more involved.

What can they do? The United States accepts that economic restraints prevent Australia and New Zealand playing a major defence role in the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific. But the Americans say that they have a vital diplomatic ana political role to play in persuading countries round the Indian Ocean and in the Pacific not to give the Russians any greater opportunity of establishing a presence and gaining influence. Recent statements on the Indian Ocean and on Russian policies by Mr Muldoon and the Australian Prime Minister, Mr Fraser, had been “most encouraging,” one American said. “But they need to be followed up.” Through their membership of the Commonwealth and through their locations in the Pacific, both countries could play a vital diplomatic role, he said. "It is all a question of will.”