The Press WEDNESDAY, APRIL 14, 1976. Population growth slowing down

Press, Volume CXVI, Issue 34128, 14 April 1976, Page 20

The Press WEDNESDAY, APRIL 14, 1976. Population growth slowing down

Restrictions on immigration were imposed in Australia and New Zealand two years ago by Governments which had become concerned about the pressure exerted by immigrants on jobs and on scarce resources. In Australia, the restraints have succeeded only too well. In what the Minister of Immigration (Mr Mackellari describes as “ a remarkable situation ”, Australia last year had a net migration loss of population for the first time for 29 years.

The effects of reduced immigration are enhanced in Australia by a declining birth rate. Almost from the first day of settlement. Australians adopted the belief that the vast, empty country must “ populate, or perish ” The present trends call that policy into question: the Minister has described to Parliament a future in which Australia may have an ageing, static population.

New Zealand last recorded a net loss of migrants in 1969. For the last three years the country has gained about 30.000 people a year by way of immigration—more, if the high figures for illegal immigrants provided by some Ministers are accepted. But in New Zealand, too. there is evidence that the rate of immigration is declining again. The gain from immigration may be sustained artificially at the moment by Australians coming to this country where work remains easier to find than on the other side of the Tasman Sea. This is a reversal of the situation during the economic recession in New Zealand in 1968.

New Zealand's birth rate is also declining. Last rear the annual birth rate per 1000 people was 18.25, compared with 19.49 for 1974. and 20.39 for 1973. The natural increase in population is also declining. Last year births exceeded deaths bv 31.526. In 1974 the natural increase was 34.075 and in 1973 it was 35,415.

The birth rates m Australia and New Zealand are not likely to increase: they may well decline further as birth control measures become even more readily available and more sought after. Unless New Zealand begins actively to seek immigrants again, the growth of population is likely to be much slower than many forecasts have predicted. New 7 Zealand’s population reached one million in 1910. The second million took 42 years and was reached in 1952: the third million took only 22 years and was reached in January, 1974. Now it looks as though the population will not reach four million before the year 2000.

Zero population growth has its attractions, especially for those who are concerned about the rate at which people are consuming the resources of the land around them. But for Australia or New Zealand, where people are living longer, it would mean a population which had to devote more and more of its resources to caring for an increasing proportion of elderly people. Beyond that, it must be asked whether New Zealand, with a little more than three million people, or Australia with 14 million, can continue to husband their space and resources in a world where the population last month passed 4000 million.

Neither country should be expected to absorb considerable numbers of immigrants who do not fit easily into its society. The first obligation of Government must be to its own people. But neither country can continue to expect to find potential immigrants “ made to order ” with the skills and characteristics which are deemed to be most desirable. The present lull in the growth of population provides an opportunity for reflection about the kind of additions to the community w’hich are desirable—or necessary—in both countries.