Rhodesia faces war if talks fail

Press, Volume CXVI, Issue 34045, 8 January 1976, Page 8

Rhodesia faces war if talks fail

The Rhodesian Prime Minister (Mr Smith) and the leader of the internal faction of the Rhodesian African National Congress (Mr Nkomo) have their political futures—perhaps even their lives—at stake in the new round of constitutional talks in Salisbury this week If these talks, like all their predecessors, fail to make credible progress, the result will be a shift in the allegiance of Rhodesia's black majority towards the more militant faction of the AN C. which is waiting with an army of some thousands over the border in Mozambique. Rhodesia would survive a protracted guerrilla war for some years, but the inevitable outcome would be a victory for the black militants In these circumstances Mr Nkomo and Mr Smith, and those who support them, would be irrelevant White Rhodesians have been told many times since the country declared itself independent more than 10 years ago that this was their " last chance " to reach a settlement. This time the statement is surely true. Rhodesian security’ forces have had considerable success against the small guerrilla movement inside the country because neighbours have been unwilling to give the terrorists unstinting support while a solution short of war seemed possible Mr Smith and Mr Nkomo are placing for time. Mr N komo said recently that he was still waiting for " a miracle" which would reveal sufficient common ground for negotiation between blacks and whites. While Mr Smith has recently repeated to his white electorate that there is no question of immediate black majority rule, he has been equivocal about the matter- he i_- prepared to discuss with Mr Nkomo Behind the scenes, hard talking has been going on for week- t<> clarify areas of agreement and disagreement between the two sides, and to draw up an agenda for rhe formal talk- Fundamental questions remain Will Rhode-ia - white Government agree to any progress toward.- majority rule” If so. what timetable will thee consider Mr Nkomo is not insisting on " one man. one vote" immediately he is prepared to accept a qualified franchise which would provide for a black majority in the Rhodesian Parliament after the next election, and for a further indefinite period of transitional rule before Rhodesia became a complete democracy However much Mr Smith prevaricates, he is going to have to say yes or no eventually to that proposition The longer he delays, the more discredited Mr Nkomo becomes and the greater the appeal of black militants Although South Africa has been wooing Zambia with financial support and trade opportunities, the Zambian President (Mr Kaunda) dare not be seen by his black neighbours to be too attracted b> Smith African blandishments. In any event. Mr Smith and Mr Nkomo are not puppets rontrollc , from Pretoria and Lusaka However much their nei ’hhmirs want the relative security which an earh settlement wou’d bring, the outcome of the talks this month denends on how the leader.- in Salisbury i»r.rne ’heir own circumstances and their futures The re-’ of the world must hope that -ommon sense will prevail and that the way will own at last for greater black participation m Rhodesian politics.