Three marginal seats in the Manawatu

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33991, 4 November 1975, Page 29

Three marginal seats in the Manawatu

The three Manawatu electorates — Ruahine, Palmerston North and Manawatu—are all marginal electorates, which is surprising as all three are held bymen who have been or are Cabinet Ministers. The safest of the three is Ruahine, even though it was held by its present National member, Mr L. W. Gandar (the Opposition spokesman on education), by only 522 votes in 1972.

Changes within the electorate since then have worked in Mr Gandar’s favour, and his own energy has also created a very favourable impression on both sides of the political fence. Ruahine is misnamed as an electorate — it would give a clearer picture if it

was known as “North Palmerston North,” because 50 per cent of its voting strength comes from the northern portion of the city. This portion is representative of the city, containing some of the highest and lowest-cost housing in it, and its sympathy with the Palmerston North electorate held by Labour was shown in 1972 when Labour polled 3600 to National’s 3418.

Any nation-wide swing to National will help Mr Gandar in Palmerston North, but it is in Feilding that he is expected to pick up most of his votes. Feilding astonished everyone, including itself, by voting Labour for the first time ever in 1972 — 2055 votes to 1973 — but since then it has become a

boom town- with one of the highest new-housing ratios in New Zealand. Its building boom is the result of many, mainly young, professional and business people seeking high-cost housing to commute daily into Palmerston North. New home building each month worth about 5500.000 has been the rule this financial year, with more than 5300.000 worth of building permits being issued in the first 15 days of October. For a town of barely 10.000 people this influx means wealth. The Labour candidate

this year is an outsider, who nonetheless has impressive credentials. The 51-year-old Mr R. Willing was research secretary for the late Norman Kirk from 1966-74, but being an outsider will not help his chances and he is not widely-known. Social Credit gained more than 1000 votes in 1972 and its candidate is again the Deputy-Leader and finance spokesman of the League (Mr L. W. Hunter). His chances of attracting many new votes have been reduced by the narrow margin between National and Labour three years ago. Palmerston North went Labour by 1766 votes in 1972, but the gap between the main parties has traditionally been a very narrow one, and it is expected to be narrowed again this time. It is held by the Minister of Overseas Trade (Mr Walding) but, although the city is making good progress, a number of events are conspiring against him.

The main issue in Palmerston North is the replacement of the old bridge across the Manawatu River,

The city lies all along the west bank of the river but is being held back in its development across by the existence of only one bridge, and that an old one.

This has not been an inter-party matter before, but residents are becoming fed up with delay and the Citizens’ controlled City Council, which is widely acclaimed as progressive and active, is passing some of the blame in Mr Walding’s direction. In fact, there is a general feeling that the City

Council does more for the city than Mr Walding does, which will not help him on Polling Day. Palmerston North is a growing city, with about 400 new private homes and 40 State houses a year, but as it is one of the cheapest housing areas in New Zealand it is hard to tell who this growth will benefit.

National has a strong candidate in Mr J. Lithgow. a 42-year-old sales manager, who has been campaigning and is tending to overshadow the candidates of Values and Social Credit. But if Ruahine and Palmerston North are marginal seats, Manawatu is trembling on a knife-edge. Indeed, if Labour is to take any seats from National, then Manawatu would be a prime candidate.

The seat was won by National by 427 votes in 1972, and its member, Mr A. McCready had an election night" majority of only 364. Changes that have occured in the electorate since 1972 would normally favour Labour, and Mr McCready will need any nation-wide swing to National he can get to retain his seat.

When he first stood for Manawatu in 1972, after the Electoral Boundary Commission had carved up his previously safe Homw h e n u a seat, Mr

McCready's candidacy created stormy debates among the National Party faithful and he only just managed to stave off a challenge from a local farmer for the party’s ticket. With block support from the Levin branch of the National Party, Mr McCready gained acceptance, but the vote was never published and it is widely believed within Manawatu to have been a very near thing. On Polling Night National Party supporters stayed away in droves and what had been expected to be a safe seat for National very nearly went to Labour. Levin itself went Labour in 1972, by 3464 to 2946, as did Foxton and Shannon — the only other settlements of any size in the electorate, but Mr McCready gained sufficient rural votes to squeeze in.

Since then, Foxton and Shannon have continued to stagnate while Levin has gone ahead in leaps and bounds. Unfortunately for Mr McCready, Levin’s growth has not been such as to help his chances. Levin is attracting light industry and has had the same house-building rate (400) as Palmerston North, which is more than twice its size.

The Housing Corporation has also been active and the number of State houses has doubled within the last three years. For many years, Levin has been lobbying hard for a general hospital. Plans for a general hospital were finally approved this

month, and although Mr McCready could expect to gain some of the credit for this breakthrough, the chances are that more of the credit will be given to Labour. Level-crossing arms have also been installed — the main

trunk line bisects the town — and this too has given satisfaction to the town. The Labour candidate is Dr A. Evies, a 39-year-old schoolteacher who does not yet seem to have created much awareness of the looming elections. Levin is basking in its new prosperity, and it is difficult to predict how the growth of the last three years will influence Election Day, but the seat shows all the signs of balancing on knife-edge.