U.K. unemployment: experts’ forecast

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33934, 29 August 1975, Page 9

U.K. unemployment: experts’ forecast

I.V.Z.P A.-Reuter— Copyright) LONDON. August 28. A continued rise in unemployment in Britain next year is predicted today by the independent National Institute of Economic and Social Research.

The institute’s experts, who describe Britain’s present recession as the deepest since the Second World War, say in their quarterly review that industrial output will reach the limit of its decline fairly; soon, but that recovery will; be slow. They assume that the! Labour Government’s pay, policy, restricting wage increases to £6 a week, will be generally successful, but add: “The trade unions have accepted the new policy at least partly because they were told that there would be more unemployment if they did not. If now they find that unemployment continues to rise fast well into next year, then it is probable that support for the

pay policy will fade, and turn to outright opposition.” The forecast suggests, however, that unemployment will still be on the increase at the end of next year,! unless Government policies change. The estimate for! hard-core unemployment, not counting school-leavers and students, is 1.25 m this win- ; ter, compared with just under 1 million in the latest official figures, for July. “Even if Britain were helped by the expected recovery in the world economy, unemployment is likely to reach as high a figure as 1.5 million by the end of I 1976;’’ the experts say, sug-l gesting that one way to restrain the expected rise in! unemployment would be to stimulate domestic demand! fairly soon, and to make small but frequent ex-! pansionary moves.