The Press SATURDAY, MARCH 29, 1975. Winds of change in Thailand

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33804, 29 March 1975, Page 14

The Press SATURDAY, MARCH 29, 1975. Winds of change in Thailand

The pliant Thais are preparing to accommodate themselves to the dramatic changes in the neighbouring Laos. Cambodia and Vietnam. A year ago the withdrawal of American forces from Thailand was clearly foreshadowed. A former Foreign Minister, Thanat Khoman. who was the architect of the American military build-up during the 19605. sensing the strength of American feeling for complete withdrawal from Indo-China, said that the bases in Thailand from which United States aircraft flew into South Vietnam would never be used to defend the country in the event of invasion. The bases, he argued, merely served American national interests, and were in fact an imnediment to better relations with China and North Vietnam.

That view is clearly held by the new Government in Bangkok—the second since the election late in Februarv which returned representatives of 22 political parties to the National Assembly. When Mr Kukrit Pramoj replaced his brother Seni as Prime Minister a few weeks ago, the Government announced that it would recognise any government in Cambodia recognised by the United Nations. That condition seems certain to be met in the event of a Khmer Rouge take-over, which appears to be imminent. Democracy in Thailand has made little progress since the so-called student revolt which, in October, 1973, ended some 40 years of military rule. But even the present military-civilian coalition, if it is to survive at all—some observers have given it a life of three months—must see the need for a radical readjustment to changed circumstances. Thailand, indeed, must expect to be subjected to increasing Communist pressures if Communist authority is enforced in Cambodia and Vietnam. Revolts supported by North Vietnam continue to smoulder in the north, north-east, and southern regions of Thailand. Furthermore, many Thais question the lovaltv of the substantial Chinese minority in Thailand, even if it appears to be well assimilated by South-East Asian standards.

The Thai Government now appears to be resigned to the only practicable course left open—to improve relations with China and North Vietnam in the hope that the Thai people will be left to work out their own future, based on democratic principles, without any external interference. In any case the American presence in Thailand, including one of the largest concentrations of air power outside the United States, now seems certain to be drastically curtailed. Mr Seni Pramoj's Government, after only a week in office, was defeated in a confidence vote because he had suggested an American withdrawal, of 25.000 men and 350 planes, in 18 months. His brother, Kukrit, has already advanced that deadline by six months, and may well find that even a year is not acceptable to majority opinion in Thailand. Many Thais fear that any American presence in the countrj' increases the danger of spreading insurrection. The Government can only try to continue its long-standing friendship with, and reliance on. the United States while seeking a tolerant association with China and North Vietnam. Thailand has been compared to a bamboo plant, which bends before a gale and springs upright again when the storm has passed. The Thais are against demonstrating their ability to sense a change in the wind and to bow before it