The Ethiopian struggle

Press, Volume CXV, Issue 33740, 13 January 1975, Page 12

The Ethiopian struggle

Events in Ethiopia may be moving slowly towards a political settlement of the insurgency problem, notably in the northern province of Eritrea, where the fight for independence has been going on for 13 years. Towards the end of December the ruling military council, in a major policy shift, recognised the guerrilla movement and said that it would open negotiations with the main faction, the Eritrean Liberation Front (E.L.F.). As yet, no indication has been given where or when the proposed talks will be held, although it is expected that an offer to mediate by President Nemery of Sudan will be accepted. The chances of a settlement will depend, nevertheless, on how far the Government is prepared to go to placate separatist sentiment in the north. The E.L.F. leader, Osman Saleh Sabi, something of a veteran in the diplomacy of revolution, insists that nothing short of independence will satisfy his movement, and says that the Front is so well organised and armed (from various Moslem sources) that it can win independence by force. The military Government may well be wondering whether it can accept the risk of an all-out civil war, towards which Ethiopia appears to be drifting. In addition to its promised programme of social reforms, it has begun the release of political prisoners and has abandoned a plan to send thousands of students into the countryside to help the peasant farmers—an idea that was flatly rejected by the students themselves. Unless the military junta tackles firmly the central problem of socialisation, which the deposed Emperor Haile Selassie had refused to do, hopes for a deal with the revolutionaries will-fade. The E.L.F. now claims to be working in close contact with other minority groups, the Somalis and the Gallas, in Ethiopia’s western and southern regions. Relatively little has been heard of the Gallas, but they claim that their freedom movement is well organised and capable of effective military action. They say that not only are they the original Ethiopians, but that they are, in fact, the country’s majority community. The Somalis and Gallas have considerable support in Eritrea, and already there is speculation that if the promised talks materialise the E.L.F. may offer to help them by suggesting, in lieu of partition, some loose form of federation, with abandonment of the name Ethiopia.

The military council seems unlikely to consent to change on that drastic scale. But the fact of widespread Arab support for the rebels will have to be taken into account in Addis Ababa. According to rebel claims. Libya. Iraq, and Syria have already provided arms and money; and in December, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait indicated their support for the Eritrean Front. Moreover, opposition to the junta is said to be gathering in the provinces, among sections of the old ruling caste who are not prepared to give up their privileged status without a struggle. If this is true, the junta may well conclude that its own survival could depend on its willingness to reach a workable accommodation with the revolutionaries, even at the cost of abandoning its central concept of a unified Ethiopia.