The Press MONDAY, JUNE 24, 1974. Mr Smith in search of a mandate

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33568, 24 June 1974, Page 12

The Press MONDAY, JUNE 24, 1974. Mr Smith in search of a mandate

The Rhodesian Prime Minister, Mr lan Smith, insists that he is not worried by events in Portuguese Africa, and more specifically by those in Mozambique, where the creation of a predominantly black government is now likely. In fact, he has a good deal more cause to be worried by a transfer of power there than has Mr Vorster in South Africa, even if Mr Vorster has to accept that guerrilla warfare, in the event of the uncontrolled spread of nationalism in Mozambique, could reach South Africa’s borders. Mr Vorster is known to be shaping policy towards the creation of a'chain of Bantustan States as a buffer along South Africa’s eastern and northern borders. But his hopes for a friendly Mozambique, even in the event of African political control, must reside mainly in the territory’s heavy economic dependence on South Africa for trade and for the employment of black workers in the gold mines. Mozambique must also see South Africa as a prospective major purchaser of electric power from the big Cabora Bassa installation. Mr Smith has little cause for comfort in his relations with Mozambique. Most of Rhodesia’s trade passes through Mozambique, and this provides one reason why the Rhodesian Government is hastening the construction of a rail link to give clear access to the sea.

What Mr Smith most urgently seeks is not a settlement with Britain, even if that were possible on his terms, so much as an understanding with black Rhodesians that would delay any surrender of white power. By deciding to hold an early election and to resume talks with African organisations, notably the African National Council headed by Bishop Abel Muzorewa, he appears to be seeking a mandate which would include, or at least imply, African approval of his policies. Approval by the A.N.C. alone would not be enough. The three guerrilla groups, chief among them being the African National Union, certainly would not be put off by anything less than power-sharing on eoual terms. Mr Smith will not find it easy to secure the support of even the more moderate A.N.C. The talks began, but were suspended almost immediately when the Rhodesian Government detained the council’s publicity secretary (Dr Edson Sithole).

Even if the talks resume, it is unlikely that they will produce a solution of the central. political problem of representation. An offer of six more Assembly seats, giving Africans 22 out of a total of 72, was in fact rejected by the A.N C. before the military take-over in Portugal. The council claimed that the suggested increase me'ant that parity with the whites would still be up to 60 years distant. It would not be enough, the A.N.C. leaders protested, to enable Africans to block undesirable constitutional changes. Mr Smith will no doubt win the election: but the result will not resolve the so-called current political impasse. It is more likely to deepen uncertainty in the minds of many white Rhodesians, reflected in the departure of 286 whites in April alone. Against that, the Government claims that applications for entry by prospective white settlers continue at a satisfactory level. Even if entry is approved, most applicants may be expected to defer their decision until the outlook in Mozambique becomes clearer.