The Press TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 1974. The West German strikes

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33463, 19 February 1974, Page 12

The Press TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 19, 1974. The West German strikes

For a few days last week West Germany appeared to be on the brink of a crisis as severe as Great Britain's. The public service and transport unions called strikes in support of their demand for a 15 per cent wage increase which brought hardships to many West German cities — hardships to which most British citizens have become accustomed but which were novel in a country where the last strike by public service workers was 16 years ago. The federal, state and local governments refused at first to offer the strikers more than 10 per cent. The Chancellor (Mr Willy Brandt) maintained that a greater increase would lead to excessive inflation and unemployment. As in Britain, the Government feared that a too-generous settlement with one group of workers would lead to inflationary demands from others. In preliminary talks the representatives of more than four million metal workers had demanded increases as high as 19 per cent. A continuing confrontation between Government and unions seemed possible, although by the week's end the strikes were over. The workers were offered and accepted an 11 per cent increase. The compromise which eluded the British was reached in Germany partly because the German unions were dealing with a SocialDemocratic Government. The unions knew that to embarrass Mr Brandt would be to embarrass their best friend at the federal level; the British mineworkers have no such scruples in their dealings with Mr Heath. The German memory of the political consequences of inflation and unemployment may also hsve encouraged the unions not to press their most extreme demands. Mr Brandt for his part was not bound by a statutory incomes policy. He is in charge of an economy which, despite his dire forecasts, is probably healthy enough to survive doublefigure wage increases without excessive inflation or unemployment. Germany’s trade balance has remained favourable despite revaluation of the mark. Although the crisis was soon resolved, the events of last week do highlight an important shift in West German politics. Since Mr Brandt took over in Bonn in 1969, the dominant issue has been his Ostpolitik — the normalisation of relations with the country’s Eastern European neighbours. Up to the week before he delivered it, on January 24, Mr Brandt intended to open his New Year policy statement with a survey of West Germany’s relations with East Germany. He opened it instead with remarks on domestic developments. For the next year, domestic — primarily economic — issues are going to dominate German politics. Overshadowing all will be the prospect of economic stagnation. The German growth rate this year will, the Government estimates, be less than two per cent, a sharp drop from last year’s modest five per cent The squeeze on real earnings in West Germany might yet lead to tension between Government and unions. Politically, Mr Brandt is turning, his attention to getting the various social and economic reforms ne has promised on to the statute book. This may strain relations within Mr Brandt’s coalition, between his own Social Democrats and the Free Democrats, who disagree about how far the reforms should go and how they should be implemented. This strain will probably first become evident in wrangling over the filling of Cabinet posts. The recent strikes presage a troubled year for Mr Brandt.