Election in U.K. thought likely

Press, Volume CXIV, Issue 33433, 15 January 1974, Page 13

Election in U.K. thought likely

'N Z P A -Reuter—Copyright LONDON, January 14. I he British Prime Minister (Mr Edward Heath) today will hold a crucial meeting with trades union leaders amid mounting speculation that he will call a snap General Election to deal with industrial disputes crippling the economy.

Informed sources believe that Mr Heath's decision on whether to risk an election will hinge on his meeting with leaders of the Trades Union Congress (T.U.C.), which represents some HI million organised workers.

The odds are hardening in favour of an election on February 7 or 11, unless the T.U.C. can guarantee that a pay deal for Britain’s 270,000 coalminers above the legal pay limits would not lead to a scramble by other unions to breach the Government's pay curbs with inflationary wage demands.

The miners’ 10-week-old overtime ban, which has slashed coal production, has been blamed for pushing an already bad energy crisis into a power famine, causing an unprecedented three-day-week for industry’. T.U.C. leaders are unlikely, however, to go beyond previous assurances that the unions would not use a coal agreement, as such, as an argument to breach the pay code. Even if the congress — against all expectations — meets the Government’s demands. some Ministers are arguing that Mr Heath should still call the election. They believe that the prospects of a better opportunitv for the Government in the next 18 months — the period within which an election must be held — are remote. Unless Mr Heath is prepared to wait until April for an election, he must decide within the next 10 days, probably this Thursday when a Cabinet meeting is due. Britain’s traditional polling day is Thursday, and the only two Thursdays available for

an early election would be February 7 and 14, because on February 16 a new register of voters comes into effect. This would delay a poll for several weeks because of the need to reorganise electoral systems. Meanwhile, the outlook for British industry gets gloomier every day as a crippling shortage of raw materials and power restrictions slashes production figures and profits giving added urgency to the last-ditch efforts that the Government and the T.U.C. make today to break the deadlock over miners’ pay. An industrial survey, commissioned by the “Observer”

newspaper and Independent Television, has shown that one-third of manufacturing firms surveyed expect to suffer permanent damage, including bankruptcy in some cases, if three-day working lasts for another month, and half the firms would reach that critical position by the first week in March. Commenting on the survey, Lord Stokes, chairman of the British Leyland vehicle group, said it seemed "remarkably accurate.’’ Asked about Mr Heath’s statement in the "New York Times’’ that a three-day working week could continue into the spring if need be, Lord Stokes said: "With all respect, he does not quite understand the basic problems underlying all this and he is going to have a bankrupt nation if we go on for this length of time.’’ Rumours of an impending election led to a frenzy of activity in the Opposition parties. Mr James Callaghan, the Labour Party chairman and spokesman on foreign affairs, denounced any move towards a poll before the new register of voters came into effect as “a constitutional outrage.” And the leader of the small but expanding Liberal Party, Mr Jeremy Thorpe, announced that he was calling an emergency party meeting in London today to discuss Liberal election plans. Holding a poll before the new register came into effect would mean, according to Labour Party figures, that an estimated seven million young people, who had reached 18 — the age of suffrage — would not be able to vote. Meanwhile, recent public opinion surveys cannot have made Mr Heath’s decision on whether to hold an election any easier. Two surveys published over the week-end gave the Conservatives a lead of about 3 per cent over Labour. But another, published by the “News of the World” newspaper yesterday, found that a sample of 30 per cent would vote for the Labour Party in a snap election and only 24 per cent for the Conservatives. The rest were undecided or would vote for the Liberals.