Australia facing very important election

Press, Volume CXII, Issue 33065, 4 November 1972, Page 20

Australia facing very important election

(From CHRISTOPHER SPEARY in Canberra) Most observers and commentators here, and indeed most Australians, seem certain there will be a change of government after the Australian Federal elections on December 2.

The prediction comes Inot from any detailed analysis of the polls, marginal seats or election issues, but from a strong feeling that a change, a major new emphasis, is both logical and inevitable at this time. The analysts make it clear that the Australian Labour Party will win, not because of any positive reaction to Labour policies or leadership, but because of the negative response to the conservatism, confusion and lack of direction, purpose and national leadership of the present administration under the Prime Minister, Mr McMahon. This election is probably the most important in Australia’s history, for it must produce a Government capable of guiding the country through its greatest period of change and leading

lit to a sense of identity and nationhood. Mr McMahon’s Government has shown little evidence of a sense of purpose in dealing with the country’s problems, and its record in areas like economic management and foreign affairs has been patchy and even ramshackle. This is probably because McMahon’s main preoccupation has been to hold together an uneasy coalition between his Liberal Party, the Deputy Prime Minister’s (Mr Douglas Anthony) Country Party and the small right-wing Democratic Labour Party. Mr McMahon has achieved a shaky peace with his sectional allies at the price of a return to conservatism which has prevented him giving the strong leadership Australia so badly needs. Why Australia cannot afford this conservatism at this time was summed up recently by one of the country’s most respected public affairs writers, Mr Bruce Grant. He said: “If Australia were a settled society, with acknowledged traditions and established international relations, or if we were old or demoralised or authoritarian, we could afford indefinite periods of conservative government. “In fact, however, Australia is a society in transition and a nation in name only. We are building a society and a nation in a part of the world which challenges our identity, and our capabilities, at every turn. “The days of the lucky country or the protected province, are over and to adopt the politics of comfort or convenience, as the McMahon Government has done, is to avoid the important task of Government at this stage of Australia’s history.” Mr Grant who writes for the conservative “Melbourne Age,” says: “There will be a new Government on Decem-

ber 2, and it will not be before time.” Mr McMahon has an unfortunate image, and is among the most vilified of politicians in a country renowned for the abuse it hurls at its elected representatives. Journalists I spoke to were apt to describe him as “human” and it was not really a compliment. They were probably referring to a recent incident when the Prime Minister told Parliament that a piece of legislation on overseas takeovers would be introduced the following week, then admitted the next day he had confused the bill with another on regional development. A “human” mistake perhaps, but’ hardly a performance to inspire confidence. Mr McMahon was also repeatedly described to me as indecisive, and this he certainly is, although he gained points with the electorate when he resisted considerable pressure from his Cabinet for an early election, and stuck to his own choice -of December 2 as election day. I If Mr McMahon has his bad moments, the gaffes of Opposition Leader Mr Gough Whitlam—the latest, an ill--timed call for revaluation of the Australian dollar—are: notorious. Mr Wliitlam's clanger [ Mr Whitlam’s revaluation speech, or the irresponsi-' ibility it implied, will not only: -be hurled up at him during 1 :the campaign but bids fair to'follow him dowm the years in -much the way that the Black Budget hounded the New Zealand Labour Party for an -inordinate time. Mr Anthony, whose support: [comes solely from the rural -areas, never makes a speech -these days without a referlence to the revaluation -clanger. I Apart from such indiscretions by its leader, the A.L.P.’s biggest potential liaI bility is the man who could I be labour's greatest asset in ithis country, the president of' I the Australian Council of 1 [Trade Unions, Mr R. Hawke. The most loved or most; hated political figure in the] country, depending on your point of view, Bob Hawke is] a household name who hasgone on record as saying the 1 only position which could give him more power than the one he now has is the Prime Ministership. Although he has disavowed political ambition at this time, - the Liberal-Country Party coalition has done a neat -job of raising the spectre of I Mr Hawke peering over Mr -Whitlam’s shoulder. It is the 'same tactic the National Party

uses so effectively when ft raises the bogy of Mr Skinner ruling the country should Mr Kirk be elected Prime Minister. In fact. Mr Hawke appears to be going out of his way to give Mr Whitlam a clear run. He is beginning to adopt a low profile and to turn down many of the television appearance invitations which once had him popping up on -screen somewhere almost 'every night. At the same time he has kept a tight rein on the -unions, and although carpenters and watersiders are [both involved in protracted disputes, it appears he will be able to prevent any major industrial troubles embarrassing the Labour campaign. - Campaign policies The campaign itself seems destined to be a rather negative affair, based on denigrait ion of the opponent rather -than positive new policies. | Labour’s chief attack will be on the state of the economy. Unemployment figures released recently show two [per cent of the work-force still jobless. And new consumer price index figures for -the September quarter show a rise of 1.4 per cent. 1 In Australia, price rises in 'the December quarter usually -exceed those for September, 'and if this holds true the annual inflation rate for this year will be close to 6 per -cent. Coupled with the employment situation, this is fertile -ground for Labour criticism. - Primarily the Government’s campaign will be aimed at playing on the [innate conservatism of the -electorate, at developing the -fear complex about how a Labour Government would nationalise the schools, ' the doctors and anything else in -sight. - Whether more positive -issues will develop remains ■to be seen. One potentially explosive tissue lurking beneath the isurface is the question of migration. Mr Whitlam is known to be in favour of a -massive cut-back in immigration, but party officials have -warned him not to say too -much about this. - The Government may try ]to exploit the issue, and it -could turn into one of the -features of what looks at this stage like being a rough and tumble affair with very little meat.