Dangerous factors in East Pakistan crisis

Press, Volume CXI, Issue 32663, 20 July 1971, Page 11

Dangerous factors in East Pakistan crisis

(By

THAYIL JACOB GEORGE)

CALCUTTA, (India).

The East Pakistan crisis began .almost four months ago as a political blunder. It mushroomed into the tragedy of Bangla Desh. Today it is moving inexorably toward a shooting war between India and Pakistan.

There are many factors which make inevitable a military showdown between these hostile neighbours.

The first and most compelling is the refugee problem: millions of destitute Bengalis now in Indian territory represent a stark fact of life, dispelling any lingering doubts here about the magnitude and character of the army action in East] Pakistan.

A second factor is the near-hopelessness of the Pakistan government’s policy of holding on to its rebellious eastern wing through brute force.

A third is the mounting

.public cry in India that the; New Delhi government take! ■decisive action against the ! regime of President Yahya Khan in Pakistan. , Above all is the hatred • now being nursed into history in the hearts and minds iof millions of Bengalis who have found crude refuge in India. Almost seven million .men, women and children I today are crowded into pitiable camps in this country. Most are old, many infirm. But a small proportion—about one seventh—appear to be able-bodied young men and women. Arming refugees

i That is why the refugees . are important in the certainty of a conflict which the subcontinent and the world hoped might be avoided. Highly informed sources in Calcutta say at least 70,000 refugees are fit enough to receive paramilitary training. The Bangla Desh govemment-in-exile is known to have established some training grounds along the Indo-Pakistan frontier. East Pakistanis living i abroad have formed their own supply organisations to buy arms —if necessary on a commercial contract basis—for what they regard as the Bangla Desh freedom fighters. With such help it is probable that some sort of fighting organisation already has been built by the rebels. The Pakistan military authorities are aware of the situation which is developing. They know, too, that public pressure on the Indian government has exceeded all previous calculations. Sober and responsible newspapers in India have been urging [persistently that New Delhi ! order a quick military action against Pakistan, on the , reasoning that a machine-gun 'stitch in time can save seven | million. In India the democratic system is pervasive, and the Prime Minister, Mrs Indira ! Gandhi, risks a grave loss of popularity if she ignores this domestic pressure for too long.

Mrs Gandhi is aware of all this. Her colleagues also know that on such matters she can be as tough-minded

i as any man. Informed opinion ' in New Delhi is that her first move will be official recognition of the Bangla Desh government. Recognition will mean the point Of no return, for it will ' have immediate military implications. After that move, > i

India would feel justified in legalising the supply of arms to Bangla Desh fighters.

Real threat

In this context, 70,000 trained and fiercely bitter refugees constitute a very real threat to the ambitions of President Yahya and his generals. With each passing week, the Pakistan government’s position—and peace on this subcontinent is becoming shakier. The mammoth proportions of the refugee exodus has had a startling effect on world opinion, and this will be a crucial factor in India’s actions from now on. President Yahya, too, knows the enormous importance of world opinion in the weeks and months ahead. This was evident when he recently complained of exaggeration and fabrication in the British press cover of events in East Pakistan.

And if anything about war can be comprehensible, it may be understandable that the Pakistan authorities seem anxious to face, as quickly as military machinations can bring it, the showdown which they know is coming. For while realising that world opinion is scarcely favourable to its cause, the Pakistan Government feels other nations are not yet willing to weigh in with large-scale support for India after the outbreak of war. Cannot wait Regular aid - givers to Pakistan have now publicly announced suspension of all aid programmes until a “political solution” can be found to end the crisis. The Pakistan economy, already crippled, cannot weather such storms for long—even if Pakistan’s ally, the People’s Republic of China, proves willing to step up its economic help. This strengthens the Pakistani conviction that the country simply cannot afford to wait indefinitely for the conflict with India. New Delhi, carefully watching the slow turning of world opinion, obviously would like to delay the showdown for some months. In the realisation' of inevitable conflict, India also would prefer to allow the Bengalis time to train and organise themselves.

Since partition in 1947, Pakistan and India have clashed three times. The fourth time will almost certainly mean the dismemberment of Pakistan. Intrasia