New mood, new strategy

Press, Volume CX, Issue 32474, 8 December 1970, Page 17

New mood, new strategy

(By

JOHN WHEELER,

of the Associated Press, through N.Z.P.A.)

PHNOM PENH, Dec. 7. Recent sweeping Communist gains have forced a new mood of realism on the Cambodian General Staff, which has decided reluctantly that still more territory must be conceded, at least temporarily, according to qualified diplomatic sources.

Present hopes for preventing a Communist take-over are tied to establishing the Lon Nol Line, named after Cambodia’s Prime Minister and senior general. That means abandoning plans for retaking large sections of the nation’s heartland; the hope is that the

new strategy will permit effective defence of the most vital parts of the country. The Lon Nol Line, roughly, would begin west of Battambang, in the far north-west, pass south of the huge Lake Tonie Sap, and then turn eastwards through Kompong Cham, the present eastern anchor of the High Command’s shattered northern front.

Although diplomats now credit the High Command with making a far more realistic evaluation of the Communist threat to General Lon Nol’s regime, some of them fear that even the modified heartland tactics may prove too much for the burgeoning and largely inexperienced Cambodian Army. Western experts now wonder whether the Government will be able to restore its northern front, on Highway No. 7, short of massive South Vietnamese intervention. There is some doubt whether long-term and massive South Vietnamese military aid will be forthcoming. Six months ago General Lon Nol decided to give up nearly half of Cambodia, in the hopes of holding the vital heartland in which population and food supplies are centred. Since then the Communists have taken all the heartland north of the Tonie Sap, east of Siem Reap, and north of Kompong Cham. The new plan would mean abandoning ' Government pledges to retake this area —which would be a major loss of face for the regime. Qualified Western experts

say that, even with a lowering of sights of what is. possible in the coming months, the High Command will be lucky to hold its own against the Communist troops, particularly in the area north of Phnom Penh. Hanoi has stationed two divisions in the immediate area of the northern front betwen Skoun and Kompong Cham, a provincial capital and military regional headquarters on tne Mekong River.

Another sign of realism in the Cambodian General Staff’s thinking, diplomats say, is the abandonment of hopes that Cambodia could quickly drive out the North Vietnamese and Viet Cong. In the past, Cambodian officials have tended to assume that they must win because their cause was just. Now, officials are reluctantly coming to grips with the possibility of a protracted war with no certain solution. As the dry season begins, the heaviest fighting in Cambodia so far is expected. Optimistic estimates of the territory held by each side gives the Communists and the Government each about 40 per cent of the land area, and 20 per cent contested. Other estimates put the shares at about 35 per cent in Government hands, 15 per cent contested, and half under Communist control, or abandoned by the Government.

About 80 per cent of the population is said to be in areas still held by the Government.