The Press TUESDAY, JANUARY 23, 1968. Nuclear Arms Treaty

Press, Volume CVIII, Issue 31584, 23 January 1968, Page 10

The Press TUESDAY, JANUARY 23, 1968. Nuclear Arms Treaty

When almost every other relationship between the United States and Russia is strained, the success of their efforts to produce a draft treaty to stop the spread of nuclear arms says much for their determination to prevent a nuclear catastrophe. The Governments of both countries see danger in the unchecked proliferation of nuclear weapons. Even the accidental use of these weapons by the countries that already have them could lead to nuclear war. The treaty which has been sought at Geneva since 1961 is such a vital issue in power politics that the tabling last week of a draft agreement which has the support of the two largest nuclear powers' was an important step towards wider agreement. Heartening as this may be, the real test facing the Geneva conference is whether the wider agreement can be found. That, after all, is the point of the whole treaty. As established nuclear powers, Russia and the United States sacrifice no nuclear strength by offering this treaty. They invite other countries to forgo the development and possession of nuclear weapons. India for example, feels justifiably uneasy about China’s becoming a nuclear blackmailer; so India is not likely to sign the treaty unless the existing nuclear powers—Russia and the United States in particular—guarantee India’s security. Israel may not renounce nuclear arms even if all its Arab enemies do so. Unless some guaranteed settlement can be reached in the Middle East, Israel will always fear the numerical superiority of the Arab countries and hanker after nuclear weapons as a counterweight. It is just this kind of fear that makes the treaty at once so necessary and yet so difficult to achieve. Even if the treaty’s inspection proposals, designed to ensure that nuclear development in non-nuclear States is purely for peaceful purposes, are acceptable, the treaty will not attract signatories among countries capable of producing nuclear weapons unless complementary settlements are reached. The call for negotiations on general disarmament goes some way to meet this problem of security. It probably does not go far enough; and this thought gives some weight to France’s objection to the whole idea of a nonproliferation treaty preceding broader settlements and a general agreement on disarmament. A Middle East settlement is only one such prerequisite. China’s participation in the agreement—however improbable —is another, not because this would curtail China’s growth as a nuclear power but because it ought to seal off a source of nuclear weapons for other countries. Another crisis of the Cuban missile variety—China being the donor of weapons—is the sort of emergency both the United States and Russia would surely go to considerable lengths to prevent To Russia, the treaty has a special significance: it must ensure that Germany does not become a nuclear power. West Germany is, in fact, the only country to have renounced the production of nuclear weapons. Understandably, Russia wants more assurance than this that Germans will never have nuclear weapons in their hands. France, no less, wants to retain nuclear superiority over Germany. Against this, all the members of the European Economic Community wish to be on an equal footing in nuclear science and technology. The feeling in Europe that the United States will increasingly leave Europeans to their own devices encourages the idea of joint control of nuclear weapons in Europe. Sb far, with British encouragement, this idea has been resisted by the United States. Were it not for the war in Vietnam, Russia and the United States might go further and faster towards the kind of co-operation that could guarantee the security of non-nuclear countries. At least the agreement of the two on something as important as the principle underlying the draft shows that they are looking beyond the breach held open by the Vietnam war. The next two months, during which the conference will have to prepare a submission to the United Nations, may reveal how keenly the present and the potential nuclear powers are looking towards a safer world.