MIDDLE EAST TODAY RUSSIA’S MEDITERRANEAN FOOTHOLD GROWS STEADILY

Press, Volume CVIII, Issue 31579, 17 January 1968, Page 14

MIDDLE EAST TODAY RUSSIA’S MEDITERRANEAN FOOTHOLD GROWS STEADILY

I By

CLARE HOLLINGWORTH,

writing to the “Daily Telegraph,” London, from Cairo.!

(Reprinted from the “Daily Telegraph" bp arrangement.)

The Russian presence in the United Arab Republic is like an iceberg which has grown steadily since January 9, 1960, when Moscow agreed to support Nasser’s project to construct the High Dam at Aswan.

The people of the countryside will cheer 200 senior Soviet officials who are expected from Moscow to attend the anniversary celebrations this month and watch the Egyptian President start the fourth turbine-operated electric generator of the dam. Millions of Egyptians believe economic help from Russia, especially since the end of the June war, more important than the military assistance which has been given.

Indeed the fact that the Russians have supplied sufficient grain flour to guarantee bread until the next harvest in May, as well as medicine, paraffin and machinery for the construction of a new oil refinery, has made far more impression on the population than the tanks, trucks, or MiGs. Voice In. Planning Mr Serge Vinogradov, the Soviet Ambassador, leads a first-class team of diplomats and experts—the men are good-looking and the women well turned out—and, although they do not seek social contacts with foreigners, they are not afraid to talk with them. Over a thousand Russians now in the U.A.R. speak excellent Egyptian-type Arabic and English. Further, Mr Vinogradov has already reached complete agreement with President Nasser on all defence facilities Russia now enjoys in Egypt, and he has also explained Moscow’s views on the setting up of a unified Arab command structure should no political solution to the Middle East crisis be found. This will be the most important item on the agenda of the Arab summit meeting in Rabat this week. The Russian leaders have already let it be known that they intend to have not only a finger on the trigger of the powerful offensive weapons they have supplied to Algeria, the U.A.R. and, to a lesser degree, Iraq, but also a voice at the planning stage. Indeed, one of the most important and, perhaps, unexpected results of the overwhelming Israeli victory was that it provided the Russians with an excellent opening to take some control in the major defence systems of the Arab Middle East. Military Presence The overt reason for the Russian military presence now is to provide an effective deterrent to further Israeli aggression. Certainly, the Soviet Union could not afford to risk a second loss of vast quantities of aircraft and other weapons with which they have supplied Egypt to replace those destroyed during the six-day war in June. Nor could the Egyptian forces be expected to defend their country effectively until new weapons had been assembled

and tested and the army and air force trained to use them. Russian experts claim with reason that this training will take two or three years if an efficient defence force is to be created. Thus it is reasonable to assume that the Russian military presence will become a permanent feature in the south and eastern Mediterranean. Meanwhile, Russian officers now serving in the Middle East make no secret of the fact that they will be granted facilities at Mers el Kebir, Algeria, after the French withdraw from this gigantic naval base. In addition to naval bases the Russian Air Force has refuelling and repair facilities at Maison Blanche, Algiers; Blida and Annaba in eastern Algeria; Cairo, West Alexandria, Luxor and Aswan in Egypt; Sana and Hodeida in the Yemen, and probably others in Syria and Iraq, too.

No Hammer And Sickle But although the Russians sometimes accidently refer in conversation to their “naval bases” at Latakia, Alexandria and Port Said, the Hammer and Sickle does not fly from any land installations, nor will it replace the Tricolor at Mers el Kebir, for Arab revolutionary leaders do not concede bases to foreign Powers. To be fair, the Russian Mediterranean fleet was sailing before June. So were instructors from the Eastern bloc working with the defence forces of Syria, the Yemeni Republic, the U.A.R. and Algeria. But Moscow began a major build-up last August. There is no longer any serious pretence that the five to eight Soviet vessels which can normally be seen in Alexandria and Port Said harbours are on goodwill visits—they are refitting, repainting and refuelling from their own oil supply ships. It is now assumed that there are some 50 Soviet naval vessels in the Mediterranean under the command of the 15,000-ton cruiser October Revolution. These include one or two missile-carrying submarines and surface craft with missiles intended for use in an anti-aircraft role. There are several Komar class patrol boats armed with shortrange missiles. Threat To Air Links Soviet itrategic bombers— TU-16s—now visit Egypt, not only for goodwill but also familiarisation and training, especially warm weather target practice over the desert. While there is every appearance that the Russians intend to turn the Mediterranean into a second front of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, this is naturally strongly denied by Russian officers here. Indeed it is possible that today’s operations were planned when the main aim was to neutralise the United States Strategic Air Command base at Wheelus Field, in Libya, as well as bases in Sicily, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. There seems little doubt that the Russians are most anxious to be able to cut air communications in an emergency between the N.A.T.O. Powers in Europe and their allies in the Central Treaty Organisation—Turkey, Persia and Pakistan—as well as those to the Far Eastern members of the South-East

Asia Treaty Organisation. This policy has considerable support among the Arab countries, with whom it is discussed in terms of cutting off the European imperialists —Britain and, to a lesser extent, France—from their colonies and protected States, Bahrein, the Trucial States and Djibouti, east of Suez. There is little doubt that the Arab Liberation Movements in Muscat and Oman, Bahrein and the Trucial States will be given limited encouragement by Cairo, in spite of the fact that the U.A.R. and, of course, the Soviet Union realise that Britain intends to remove her military presence from the Persian Gulf within the next few years. British-like Policy Eastern bloc officials have been heard to say cynically that the Arab Middle East and North Africa cannot be allowed to fall into a state of anarchy. So far they have followed the former British policy of encouraging established leaders to maintain tbe position of power they hold, and there has been no help forthcoming to young revolutionaries who have requested assistance to organise antimonarchist activities in Libya and Saudi Arabia, despite the fact that it is an obvious inconvenience to Moscow, in planning an integrated Arab command, that these countries are using British and American aircraft and weapons. On the civil side, the Russian airline Aeroflot expects shortly to open a regular service between Moscow, Cairo, Hodeida and Dar es Salaam. This will enable Russian experts and instructors to move in non-military transport with their families, who are arriving in the U.A.R. in increasing numbers. Three contracts for oilprospecting operations in the Western Desert are about to be signed with the Egyptian Government. The bookstalls are packed with studies in Arabic on the Russian Revolution, the life of Lenin and the Story of Stalingrad. But the literate population of the towns shows a marked preference for Britlsb or French detective stories. English Favoured Nor do Russian films draw any sizeable audiences. There is no demand for Russian lessons as the vast majority of educated Egyptians want English as a second language —and, alas, it is too often being taught by well-meaning foreigners with curious accents. A Russian ballet school has recently opened and will obviously become a centre of fashion with middle-class Egyptian girls.

In the technical and engineering spheres Russian accomplishments in training unskilled workmen on the site of the High Dam are most impressive. Rightly or wrongly the Russians give the impression that they are really out to help the Egyptians—it is even reported that they offered to lend heavy cranes from the Soviet Mediterranean Fleet to raise ships from the Canal when clearing operations begin. No doubt the Russians are obtaining their pound of flesh in raw cotton and rice and Egyptian-made furniture.