The Press MONDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1967. Palmerston North By-election

Press, Volume CVII, Issue 31543, 4 December 1967, Page 12

The Press MONDAY, DECEMBER 4, 1967. Palmerston North By-election

Of the five Parliamentary by-elections since the General Election a year ago, the Palmerston North poll on Saturday produced by far the highest turn-out of voters. Although the Fendalton and Petone byelections in April came soon after the Government had imposed the first of its economic restraints, both polls were relatively poor. In spite of the very intensive campaigning by the two main parties and by Social Credit, which offered as its candidate its deputy leader, lively interest in economic affairs probably accounts for most of the response in this by-election. In the Fendalton by-election the Government lost supporters through abstentions. The Social Credit vote declined. In Petone both Labour and National won fewer votes and National won a smaller proportion of the total vote. Social Credit’s vote remained almost unchanged. At Palmerston North the National Party Jost proportionately more votes than did Labour and many former supporters of National must have voted for the Social Credit candidate. This shift of allegiance was the most significant outcome of the poll—more important to the main parties than the return of this marginal seat to Labour.

The Labour Opposition in Parliament has not done well this year. It has failed to present itself as more than a critic of the Government. So far the party has not reconstructed itself to look credibly like an alternative Government. Although the Social Credit leader, Mr V. F. Cracknell, has not made much impact in Parliament, his deputy, Mr J. B. O’Brien, is an experienced campaigner and his mustering of an additional 800 supporters since the General Election—and in a smaller poll—suggests that to some voters the economic formula of Social Credit does offer a workable alternative to the orthodox, albeit unpleasant, economic course being followed by the Government. However fallacious and elusive Social Credit economic policy has been over the last two decades it is almost certain to win adherents among people who hope that a different economic System would be better than the present system. This appeal, coupled with the fervour and conviction shown by many Social Credit candidates, is a significant challenge to the main parties. It can hardly be satisfactory to the Labour Party to gain a seat in Parliament without gaining more support in the electorate, even if the party can hold its share of the votes in Palmerston North better than can the National Party. The trend shown in this by-election, if repeated in a general election now, would put the National Party out of office; Labour, with an unchanged proportion of the total vote, would win a handful of marginal seats because of National Party abstentions and desertions to Social Credit. But the next General Election is nearly two years hence—two years, the Government hopes, of rising prosperity. How many of Social Credit’s new converts will retain their allegiance if the well-tried methods of orthodoxy produce results in that time may disappoint Mr Cracknell. The Government can reasonably expect to win back many of its former supporters in the next two years. Paradoxically, the Labour Party, which won the by-election, has least cause for jubilation. Mr Kirk looks like the general who does not lose a battle but cannot win a campaign.