Brinkmanship In The Middle East?

Press, Volume CVII, Issue 31383, 31 May 1967, Page 14

Brinkmanship In The Middle East?

Are Israel and its Arab neighbours determined to go to war? The recent provocations on both sides, culminating in Colonel Nasser’s ban on Israeli shipping in the Gulf of Aqaba, lends colour to this interpretation. It is supported by reports of recent consultations with Great Powers. Israel’s Foreign Minister (Mr Abba Eban) flew to Washington last week on the day that the United Arab Republic’s Minister for War (Mr Shamseddin Badran) arrived in Moscow at the head of a delegation of 10. The events of the last few days might appear to indicate that each of the principal contestants has secured approval for its intended aggression from a powerful backer.

The Arabs have undoubtedly tried to pin the Russians down to a firm commitment to military support in the event of war with Israel, just as the Israelis have sought a similar commitment from the Americans. If either of these commitments has been made, it would constitute a major threat not merely to peace in the Middle East, but over a much more extensive area of the northern hemisphere. For that reason, if for no others, it is unlikely that any such commitments have been entered into by Russia or by America.

Russia, while supporting generally the Arab world’s “ determination to resist Israeli aggression ”, has pointedly disregarded Colonel Nasser’s claim to exercise territorial rights over the Strait of Tiran, which commands the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba and the Israeli port of Eilat. The United States supports Israel’s contention that the straits are international waters but has not promised any specific action against Egypt if the right of ships to use these waters is challenged. Both Russia and the United States, it may be presumed, are well aware of the possible consequences of an incautious pronouncement which might be interpreted as a promise of support.

That major hostilities have been avoided during so many weeks of major “ incidents ” suggests that Russia and America have both been counselling caution. Perhaps a temporising formula to keep the Israelis and Arabs apart long enough to permit a lasting settlement will be found during the present session of the United Nations Security Council. If not, the Russians and Americans will, no doubt, continue their off-stage negotiations; but the longer a decisive intervention is delayed the greater the chances that each successive provocation in the Middle East will involve Israel and some of the Arab States, at least, in war.