The Press WEDNESDAY, MARCH 15, 1967. U.K. By-elections

Press, Volume CVI, Issue 31319, 15 March 1967, Page 12

The Press WEDNESDAY, MARCH 15, 1967. U.K. By-elections

It is unwise to read too much into the recent byelections in the United Kingdom. No doubt the British Labour Party was shocked by the outcome of last week’s three by-elections, in which it lost one seat to the Conservatives and had substantial general election majorities severely reduced in the other two. In the Glasgow division of Pollok, held marginally by the Government in the General Election a year ago, a Labour defeat had been predicted. The Conservatives would no doubt like to regard their success in regaining Pollok as marking the end of a series of Scottish reverses which have cost them 15 seats since 1959. Yet Labour’s loss of support has to be linked with the upsurge of Scottish nationalism, just as support for Welsh nationalism accounted for the slashing of the Government majority in Rhondda. The Labour Party will have recalled that Scottish nationalists polled Consistently well in last year’s General Election, and will have noted also that public opinion polls since had shown them to be increasing in strength. The Rhondda vote was a sharp reminder to the Government that less than a year ago a Plaid Cymru candidate ousted Labour from Carmarthen. In Rhondda, industrial depression and a high unemployment rate—9 per cent of the labour force, or three times the national figure—were clearly the cause of a transfer of trade union support from the Government to Plaid Cymru. Both the nationalists and the Liberals tend to campaign on regional issues. In Nuneaton, where Labour’s 1966 majority of 11,403 was cut to 4054, the result reflected the recession in the car industry and may represent no more than a temporary transfer of loyalties— a protest vote —by workers affected by the heavy cut-back in the production of motor vehicles. What effect these by-election reverses will have on Government policy can only be surmised. Mr Wilson has charted his course, and on major issues at any rate will have to stand firmly by defined policies. There has not been any major switch of support from Labour to the Conservatives; but, according to the Gallup reckoners, there undoubtedly has been a switch from Labour to “ don’t know ”. The so-called floating voters have registered their protest against current trends and could be expected to return to the Labour fold should the Government be able to show, before 1969 or 1970, that its efforts to restore the economy, harsh as their impact may temporarily have been, were successful in the long run.

At this stage there are signs of success. British exports have been climbing steadily in the last two years. The wage freeze has been imposed and, in spite of union resentment, has been generally accepted. This year there will be a substantial credit in the country’s balance of payments for the first time since 1963. Even so, critics of the Government say, the pace of recovery, or of economic growth, is too slow. They say that the Government has failed to curb effectively its own expenditure, which continues to rise faster than the national income, thus braking any real improvement in living standards. Present indications are that, regardless of by-election pointers, there will be no real test of Labour’s popularity until the next General Election. If the Government can cut the rate of its own spending, prevent the need for higher taxes, and show an accelerating rate of economic development, it should win again. If it fails to do these things, according to “ The Times ”, nothing will prevent the back-swing of support to the Tories.