Wheat

Press, Volume CVI, Issue 31277, 25 January 1967, Page 12

Wheat

A report on the Canadian wheat industry reprinted yesterday from the “ Financial Times ” described an aspect of world demand for wheat which must almost certainly affect the price of supplies imported by New Zealand. New Zealand has been importing a little more than 6 million bushels of wheat each year from Australia. Last season the average price went down more than Is a bushel in New Zealand currency —down to Ils Ijd. This favourable trend is not likely to continue and the New Zealand farmer may well be encouraged to grow more wheat in future years during which world demand is bound to strain supplies.

Two of the world’s biggest countries, China and Russia, give every sign that they will continue to import very large quantities of wheat for several years to come. Now that the United States’ surplus stocks have been exhausted India is looking to other growers, including Australia, to ship wheat for its millions whose needs cannot be satisfied by anything short of a miraculous improvement in Indian crops. Egypt, another country with a chronic grain shortage, has in the past received wheat from the United States —a traditional supplier—and Russia. For many years Russian harvests have fallen short of targets. Canadian crops have produced bumper harvests and the increasing acreage being put into wheat makes it almost certain that Russian and Chinese orders will be met comfortably. Even the 336 million tons of Canadian wheat ordered by Russia during the three seasons beginning last August will not fill Russian needs. France has sold some wheat to Russia in the past and may continue to help out. The United States, if willing to sell to Russia, will not be well placed until the authorised 15 per cent addition to American wheat acreage has been put into full production. Even this addition will put the United States only 100 million bushels ahead of the minimum generally considered a safe margin to ensure against crop failures. In under-developed countries, suitable unused land does not await breaking in for grain crops. Only a massive improvement in productivity can make these countries anything like self-sufficient. This sort of improvement, now being encouraged by the United States and international agencies, takes a long time. Good crops in the exporting countries last year should meet present demand. It is not, however, surprising that the Canadians are reported to be urging members of the International Wheat Agreement to raise their ceiling price by 20 cents a bushel. Under the 1962 agreement, which expires next July, New Zealand is obliged to buy at least 90 per cent of its commercial imports from exporting members of the agreement so long as the basic price remains below the ceiling price which has almost been reached in recent trading.