THE EGYPTIAN SCENE TESTING TIME FOR NASSER WHILE ECONOMY FLOUNDERS

Press, Volume CVI, Issue 31239, 10 December 1966, Page 14

THE EGYPTIAN SCENE TESTING TIME FOR NASSER WHILE ECONOMY FLOUNDERS

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ERIC DOWTON.

writing to the "Daily Telegraph". London, from Cairo!

(Reprinted from the “Daily Telegraph” by arrangement!

A growing accumulation of home front problems, at a moment wh tension is again building up across the Middle East, indicates that tne coming few months will be a period of stress for President Nasser, it nis good luck does not hold, an abrasive crisis could develop. Over the shabby austerity of the domestic scene the international sky glints with ominous streaks. The Israeli-Syrian border situation is ugly and could involve Egypt in a conflict which President Nasser would prefer to postpone.

The brutal, unpopular war in the Yemen seems likely to flare up into another round. Relations between the “revolutionaries” and “traditionalists” in the Arab world go on deteriorating. Pressing heavily on the Egyptian economy is the price of the industrial “great leap forward" and the maintenance of a huge, privileged military establishment. Foreign exchange reserves are dangerously low. The economy flounders along on day-to-day improvisation. An undertone of public muttering and complaint grows louder. There is widespread feeling that the men around the President are withholding unpleasant facts from him. Many consumer items are in short and sporadic supply. Prices continue to spiral upwards. It is now officially admitted that the population explosion threatens to wipe out much of the revolution’s promised social gain. Waning Prestige Communists are pertinaciously infiltrating into sensitive positions in many levels of public life. Arab diplomats say there is some restiveness among younger officers, indoctrinated by the post-Suez decade of flamboyant propaganda claiming regional invincibility for the Egyptian military machine, over the Government’s avoidance of a showdown with Israel. Two glaring omissions still vitiate this country’s Govern-ment-controlled politics. One is the absence, perhaps deliberately contrived, of a top leadership hierarchy, and the consequent uncertainty over the pattern of succession when President Nasser leaves the seat of power, the other is the failure to establish an effective political structure, machine or philosophy. Although still more formidable than that of any other Middle Eastern leader, President Nasser’s prestige is today less high than at any time since the Suez campaign 10 years ago. His growing degree of commitment to Moscow is shrewdly assessed by the Arab world. The fatuity of the recent “non-aligned summit” in New Delhi was extensively remarked upon. Reforms and social progress achieved in the Middle Eastern monarchies and sheikhdoms have blunted Cairo’s revolutionary pretensions. To the eyes of many progressive

Arabs the Yemen has produced the Ugly Egyptian. To many diplomatic observers here, Asians and Africans as well as Westerners, the possibility is not ruled out that the situation may be slipping beyond the President’s control. Two recent incidents, one Involving manual workers, the other concerning valuable professional men, are symptomatic of spreading public disenchantment Although the Gov-ernment-controlled Press here did not mention the incidents, various versions were quickly spread by word of mouth. Port Said Strike The Army was called in and used tough methods to break a strike by dockers in Port Said. Although strikes are illegal in Egypt and are liable to severe penalties, the dockers, already grumbling over food and other shortages and rising prices, had stopped work when ordered to put in an extra day’s work each month. Then the dean of Alexandria’s regional doctors’ organisation caused a sensation by making a sarcastic retort to criticisms from President Nasser of the Egyptian medical profession. By inference the dean attacked the Government’s alleged neglect of hospitals* needs. Within a few days he was removed from his various jobs, and his personal savings and property were sequestrated. There is no indication, however, that such resentments engendered by belt-tightening and the penalising of some groups are being channelled into political opposition. Although President Nasser himself is held in great respect and pride by the Egyptian people, it is doubtful whether any of his Ministers and lieutenants command much personal popularity.

The new 28-member Government formed in September is noticeably non-political. Mr Suleiman, the Prime Minister, an engineer and champion of nationalisation, became well known through his direction of the Aswan High Dam project. Sagging Credit Parallel with moves to take politics out of government are the efforts to build the Arab Socialist Union, Egypt’s one legal political organisation, into an efficacious, all-pervasive instrument of control and in-

doctrination. To date the A.S.U.'s performance has produced more disappointments than achievements. The seriousness of the financial situation is emphasised by the sales revealed last month of gold reserves to meet overdue payments on short-term credits and to bolster Cairo’s sadly sagging international credit rating. These sales are estimated to have totalled about £l7 million, almost one-third of Egypt’s known remaining gold holdings. Ending of American aid wheat supplies has been a serious blow. Hard currency must now be spent to buy wheat. Industrialisation schemes have been set back. Indicative of the chaotic condition of consumer supply planning is the fact that a few days ago a full Cabinet meeting solemnly discussed the current soap shortage. Soap has been unobtainable in many districts for some weeks and there have been minor riots among crowds of angry buyers besieging shops known to have small quantities. Soap supplies to shops are rationed. The basic causes of Egypt’s economic stresses are obvious. On the theory that development must be founded on a forced programme of massive industrial expansion, foreign exchange reserves are spent on machinery instead of consumer goods. But the planning has been so faulty that many industrial enterprises are crippled because there is not enough foreign currency to buy essential spares or supplies. Guns Above Butter Guns, too, are given high priority above butter. Supporting the vast and well-paid military and security services is a huge strain on the economy. Occasionally, adroit gestures are made. The Governor of Cairo, for example, recently decreed that landlords must refund key-money exacted for houses and flats. Naturally this went down extremely well with everyone but landlords in a city where the housing shortage is acute. Similar orders are being made in other cities. The expanding extent of Egyptian obligation to Russia (particularly for the unending flow of arms) inevitably entails increasing concessions in Cairo to Soviet schemes and policies. Communist Powers find Cairo a useful base for operations in Africa. Typical of such activities was the “African seminar” held here at the end of last month. Ostensibly this Com-munist-weighted assembly was convened, on the initiative of Moscow and Prague, for yet another of the interminable discussions of African problems. To the experienced Communist-watcher it had all the earmarks of a cover for something much more sinister. While pro-Peking Communists still languish in Egyptian prisons, many pro-Moscow Communists have been released. A surprising number of men once imprisoned for Communist party membership are turning up in sensitive Government and public jobs, especially in the Press. Arab Disunity The latest chapter of Arab disunity adds to the atmosphere of questioning here. Propaganda cannot conceal the extraordinary policy somersaults, helped by or pushed from Moscow, that were needed, for instance, for the current rapprochement with Syria and the ostentatious welcome given a few days ago to Colonel Boumedienne, the Algerian leader who used to be reviled here for deposing President Nasser’s great friend Ben Bella. Perhaps Cairo is beginning to feel badly in need of Arab friends. Nor can propaganda conceal the vicious morass of Egyptian entanglement in the Yemen. To bomb Royalist villages is one thing, to use Egyptian troops to help suppress popular discontent within the Yemeni republic by. means as brutal and mediaeval as those employed by the overthrown Imamate is something else. But among external factors it is the Israeli question that now again hangs heaviest over Cairo. Although the signing of military pacts between Arab Governments is usually a hollow formality, Egypt’s new alliance with Syria could drag her into a dangerous collision with Israel If that happened the internal consequence would be incalculable.

Confused An extensive subdivision at Whitecliffs many years ago now raised problems, the Clerk (Mr B. W. Perrin) told the Malvern County Council yesterday. Parts of legal roads had passed to private ownership over the years, cutting off legal access to sections, and some sections had no known owners, he said. It was hoped to establish all land ownership so that the position could be tidied up.