INDIAN POLITICS IS MRS GANDHI TO BE THE SACRIFICIAL GOAT?

Press, Volume CVI, Issue 31071, 28 May 1966, Page 16

INDIAN POLITICS IS MRS GANDHI TO BE THE SACRIFICIAL GOAT?

(By the Calcutta correspondent of the ••Financial Times * (Reprinted from the "Financial Times” by arrangement> Helped by the food shortage and the economic crisis, political dissatisfaction in India has increased noticeably in recent months. Mrs Indii.i Gandhi has just completed her first hundred days as Prime Minister, but. there is no sign as yet that the second hundred are going to be any less uncomfortable than the first.

Externally, relations with Pakistan have deteriorated after the brief euphoria inspired by the Tashkent agree ment. India and the United States seem generally on friendlier terms than at any time since the Indo-Pakistani conflict, thanks to Mrs Gandhi’s pilgrimage to Washington a month ago. But the main purpose of the pilgrimage—to secure a full-scale resumption of American economic aid —has not yet been achieved Indo-Russian amity is no longer advertised quite as loudly as it used to be: New Delhi has begun to realise that the Russians are developing almost as great an interest in Pakistan as they have in India. Finally Chinese-Indian relations remain bogged down in a mire of wordy threats and vicious vituperation.

Discontent Growing The state of domestic politics is no better. Discontent with economic hardship is growing: popular political protests in the form of general strikes and demonstrations are returning to fashion. In West Bengal they have been accompanied by widespread violence—so much so that a demoralised Government now suspends transport services whenever a strike is called, and thus meekly connives with the strikers themselves. Adding to the.,e difficulties are signs that the troubles in Nagaland, quite apart from the Mizo Hills and the tribal area of Bastar in Central India, might be reviving after a fairly long period of relative peace. Although the demand for a Punjab-speaking State has been conceded by the Government, unrest is simmering between Hindus and Sikhs and also on the question of delimiting the boundaries of the new State. On top of it all the Congress Party, both at the centre and in the States, has been paralysed by group rivalries; the contest between those ensconced in power and those thirsting for it shows every sign of becoming more virulent before the General Elections next February. The picture is an unlovely one indeed, but the cynic’s reaction is that India has survived many such stresses and strains before, and there is no reason why she should not survive them again. They are merely the warp and woof of Indian democracy. Furthermore, he will add, in the midst of its group contests, the Congress Party’s instinct for self preservation remains supreme. The contests are rarely carried to the point where the Party’s survival in a particular area, or in the country at large, is threatened. Finally, he will say that Mrs Gandhi has shown considerable courage in tackling some of the problems she

faces: the chances are that determination will carry her through in spite of powerful sniping from the Opposition, as well as from the Right and Left Wings of her own Party. Sniping From Left

The strongest sniping has come from the left so far. It is directed at what the Communists and leftist Congressmen describe as the Government’s rapid surrender to the Americans and the World Bank on major issues of economic policy. Mrs Gandhi’s critics fear that the extensive dismantling of economic controls might fore-shadow the end of socialist planning as hitherto understood in India: that at the bidding of the Americans major new concessions have begun to be given to foreign private capital, especially in the fertiliser industry: and that India in her desperate search for foreign aid is steadily relinquishing the initiative in choosing for herself the broad range of her economic policies.

From the right, on the other hand, the criticism is that what some describe as surrender is mere realism. India's economic policies have deary failed, as the results of the Third Plan show, so it is simple common sense that they should be revised by liberalising controls and encouraging the inflow of foreign capital. If India takes steps such as these, they add she will get much more foreign aid than she has got so far. and the foundations will have been laid for a strong economic recovery by the end of the year. Mrs Gandhi's main achievement so far has been to walk the tightrope between these opposing views—which are as strongly held within her Party as in the country at large. The result has often been fruitless indecision: firm assertions that the Government will make its own decisions “in

conformity with the national interest." accompanied by strong indications that the political and economic strings attached to foreign aid will be accepted to the extent that aid-givers choose to tighten them —since India really has no option.

Powerful Opposition What the longer-term consequences of this contest will be. no-one can forecast with confidence. On certain specific issues, such as the concessions proposed for foreign fertiliser manufacturers, powerful interests are ranged against Mrs Gandhi, including reportedly the Congress President. Mr K. Kamaraj himself. |On other issues, such as the liberalisation of controls or the lifting of the emergency, the Opposition is nearly as vocal. although perhaps rather scattered. Again the cynic’s view is

that for Congress Party as such, what may save the situation is paradoxically the selfishness of Congressmen themselves. Lured by the spoils of office that have enriched them for nearly 20 years, they may decide that mere ideological differences should not break the Party unity that hrs provided the foundations for their "dolce vita.”

Nevertheless, hard times lie ahead for Mrs Gandhi. Numerous starvation deaths have already been reported from Orissa. If famine cannot be averted despite the massive l food imports now arriving, and if the lack of foreign aid prevents an economic recovery before the General Elections, she may be chosen as the traditional goat that Hindu India since time immemorial has sacrificed to propitiate the angry Gods in times of difficulty. Whether the sacrifice of a goat will save the Congress and the country is quite another matter.