BRITISH ELECTION THE MARGINAL SEATS IN TODAY’S POLL DISCUSSED

Press, Volume CV, Issue 31023, 31 March 1966, Page 12

BRITISH ELECTION THE MARGINAL SEATS IN TODAY’S POLL DISCUSSED

IBy

JOE ROGALY

in the “Financial Times.”}

(Reprinted by arrangement » If the present polls are right anything up to a hundred Tory seats will be in danger. On the assumption that they might be at least half right, it is clear from our table that this election could well be decided by the southern half of England—or, indeed, by London alone.

This is where the bulk of the most marginal Conservative seats are situated. It is hoping to capture the seats it just missed in October. 1964. So perhaps the first thing that should be said about these seats, therefore, is that hardly any of them are remotely like Hull North—the constituency whose sharp swing to Labour on January 27 probably had more influence than any other single factor on the Prime Minister’s decision to cal) a General Election now. The predominant characteristic of a large number of these constituencies is the strength of the middle-class vote. Many are suburban, or in commuter country. In a large number of cases the people whose votes Mr Wilson now hopes to attract are those who deserted to the Liberals in 1964. Many are young couples who could be said to have more reason than anyone else to be grateful for the economic fruits of 13 years of Conservative rule. Conflicting Results On the Hull North example, a lot of them would vote Labour this time. Similarly a poll by A. J. Allen and Associates (published in the “Economist”) on the Labourheld marginal of Keighley, Yorkshire. indicated that among identifiable Liberals twice as many would vote Labour as Conservative if there was no Liberal candidate. But this, again, is in the North.

Yet a recent "Evening Standard” poll at Orpington predicted a sharp drop in the Liberal vote there, leading to a Tory victory. This squares with the popular theory that the Conservatives will benefit from a return to their own fold on the part of the Liberal voters in the south. On the other hand the National Opinion Poll reported on September 26, 1964, that more people in Orpington said they would vote Conservative than Liberal—and, in the event, Mr Lubbock sailed through in October. Thus predictions are hard to make; everyone has his own pet theory and each theory can be made to fit the figures. The table is designed to help this process. Under each regional heading the constituencies are listed in order of marginality—the easiest for Labour to capture being placed at the top. Italics denote seats held by members who won less than half the votes last time, in most cases because of a Liberal intervention. Asterisks denote Liberals standing this time; but the Liberal list of candidates was not offici-

ally complete when the table was made.

Swing Not Uniform

“Swing” is calculated by adding the percentage change in Labour votes in 1964 to the percentage change in Tory votes and dividing the results by two. Excluding Northern Ireland, the national average swing to Labour was 3.2; in the table Labour’s progress in individual seats last time can thus be measured against the average. All the seats listed, and 30 more besides, would be vulnerable if Labour’s lead in the opinion polls were around 11 per cent, on election day. In most elections the swing is not uniform across the country or even necessarily in neighbouring seats. Thus presence on the table, even in one of the most apparently vulnerable positions, does not mean that the sitting member is necessarily doomed to life as an ex-M.P. from April 1. Equally, as the 1964 election showed, above-average swings could take place and threaten seats not mentioned here. This tendency for people to vote differently in different places became noticeable in 1959 and more marked still in 1964. A number of seats not included (because they do not fall into any of the regions selected as of especial importance) are nevertheless of particular interest. The most marginal Tory-held seat, with a majority of 10, is Reading. At Preston North the leader of the Conservative Right. Mr Julian Amery, will defend a majority of 14. At Rushcliffe the Tory Chief Whip, Mr Martin Redraayne. has a 2799 majority—a vulnerable 5.2 per cent. At Bedford Mr Christopher Soames has a 6.6 per cent (3148 vote) majority; at Lancaster Mr Humphry Berkeley has a 7.0 per cent majority (2481 votes). Leyton is another special case. At the by-election on January 21, 1964, the Conservatives captured the seat in a three-cornered fight: Labour lost 7.9 per cent of its October. 1964, share of the votes, while the Tories picked up an extra 9.4 per cent. It might be that Mr Gordon-Walker will float home on the general proLabour tide this time, but there can be no guarantee. Inside the selected regions themselves there is no certainty that the voting will be homogeneous. Taking them one by one:

London And Essex This area has the greatest concentration of marginal seats Conservative and Labour—in the whole country. More than a fifth of all the constituencies in the city and the surrounding suburbs and commuterlands are Toryheld marginals. In London as a whole the swing to Labour last time was above the national average; the variations from one constituency to another were, however, wide. In Eton and Slough for example, there was a swing (partially on racial grounds) to the Conservatives, against Mr Fenner Brockway’s longheld position. In Hampstead an even more famous Tory candidate—Mr Henry Brooke —registered the greatest London swing against the Conservatives of them all: 10.6. Several other well-known members are threatened according to the current state of the opinion polls: Mr Chris Chataway at Lewisham North; Commander Courtney at Harrow East —and, of course, Mr Heath himself at Bexley. It is no coincidence

I that Mr Brown is devoting three full days of his election tour of the country to constituencies in and around London. Mr Grimond will of course, speak at Orpington, and the two party leaders will be in London every day with Mr Heath paying special visits to his own constituency. South Coast And South West

Along the southern shores of England are strung nine prizes that Transport House would love to win: add in Bath and the two Bristol marginals and there are a dozen Tory seats open to attack

In some of these —Portsmouth, Plymouth-Sutton Southampton-Test, Exeter and Dorset South—the swing to Labour in 1964 was above the national average. The question is whether there is room for a further siring this time. tn Plymouth and Portsmouth the argument oxer the Government’s cancellation of aircraft carriers for the Navy might help the Conservatives. Torrington, which the Liberals hoped to win last time, is a special case; in Bristol and Bath the pro-Labour swing in 1964 was, as might be expected, below average.

■ East Anglia Here the movement to . Labour was well below the national average in 1964. In i two constituencies—Norfolk . South-West and Lowestoft ■ there was a pro-Conservat- , ive swing. But only a little I of the Labour tide so confi • dently predicted by the polls , this time would be needed to i lap up to the most marginal : of these seats for the sitting ■ Conservatives to be threati ened. I • Birmingham—- > Black Country This middle part of England has been edging , steadily towards the Right for . more than a decade. If the upper working-class and lower middle-class voters of Birmingham and the Black i Country turn out to have a ■ higher percentage of Labour . supporters in their ranks now . it will signal a major change in the shape of British politics. In some constituencies (notably Smethwick) the race issue has been to the fore, but local council by-elections have recently shown a swing to Labour in spite of this. Scotland Again the range of swing involved is wide. The movement to Labour in Glasgow Cathcart in 1964 was 6.3 and in Edinburgh Pentlands it was 7.6—but in Ayr and Berwick it was below the national average. Mr Brown will be paying special attention to Scotland and Mr Heath will speak in Glasgow and Aberdeen; all that can safely be said at this stage is that the swing in Scotland is no more likely to be uniform than anywhere else. There remain the Labourheld marginals. Even if the swing is the way assumed in this article some of these (especially the most vulnerable ones) might be expected to fall; if the gap between the parties narrows between now and the election day the losses might, of course, go right the other way. Labour’s Vulnerables Labour’s 20 most marginal seats, in order of vulnerability, are: Brighton-Kemptown (where the majority is seven, the lowest of any party), Ealing North, Wellingborough, Norfolk North, King’s Lynn, Birmingham Yardley, Meriden, GlasgowPollok, Dover, Preston South. Gravesend, Clapham. Derby South-East, Luton, Birmingham All-Saints, HeywoodRoyton, Oldbury, NorwichSouth, Brigbouse. Rochester. Halifax. All these seats would be at risk if the opinion polls showed the two parties neck and neck; all save the last two are held by majorities of less than a thousand. Christopher Row I and at Meriden and David Ennals at Dover are the two Labour M.P.s who went to Rhodesia and met with some ungentlemanly opposition from Mr Smith's supporters.

If there is any useful pattern to Labour's marginals it lies in the astonishing way in which so many of them pair up with the Conservatives. For the Tories Preston North is in danger; for Labour it is Preston South. The Tories will defend more than twenty marginals in London and Essex: Labour could find itself fighting for 14. There are three Labour marginals ra Birmingham (Yardley, AllSaints and Sparkbrook) and another three in the Black Country (Oldbury and Halesowen. Bilston, Leek*. There are four Labour marginals in East Anglia, and half a dozen in Scotland in the North East (not included in the list of regions in the table) at least another six Labour-held seats would be threatened by any marked swing to the Conservatives. As for the Liberals, the general expectation is that they will be as much confined to the Celtic outer spheres as they are now. They may or may not retain Orpintonthey might very well capture a couple of Scottish seats, perhaps in Aberdeenshire But the interest, and the focus, remains on those vulnerable Tory-held marginals down south.