PROSPECT FOR MR WILSON RHODESIAN CLOUD OVER POST-ELECTION FUTURE

Press, Volume CV, Issue 31018, 25 March 1966, Page 12

PROSPECT FOR MR WILSON RHODESIAN CLOUD OVER POST-ELECTION FUTURE

IBv

MICHAEL GARDNER

of the "Economist”)

[From the "Economist” Intelligence Unit.l

A majority of 40 and five years as undisputed leader of the British nation ahead of him. This is the pleasing prospect Mr Wilson will probably have in a mere week’s time. A delightful sunny landscape only spoilt by the dark clouds of that tropical storm centre—Rhodesia.

By his unilateral declaration of independence, Mr Smith put himself firmly on the other side of the bar of world public opinion. In the dramatic days of November, 1965, Mr Wilson rose to the occasion and addressed the nation in resolute terms, and his resolve was that Mr Smith must go. After assurances that the use of force was out of the question, he revealed that the chosen weapon to force the rebels to the conference table was to be economic sanctions.

It was thought in Whitehall that because of its landlocked position and dependence on imports, sanctions would cause such dislike amongst the Rhodesians of Smith’s regime that the more responsible elements in the country would overthrow Mr Smith, and replace him with a government which would owe its allegiance to the Queen and would accept a constitution that would allow African majority rule in an unspecified period of time. That was four months ago, but what is the position today? Sanctions Tighten , An escalation is taking piace. At first unimportant sanctions were applied; then the Rhodesian Reserve Bank in London was taken over: then imports of tobacco and sugar were banned; then 95 per cent of all Rhodesian products were forbidden and finally a total oil embargo wa s imposed and our allies were persuaded to enforce it too. That these sanctions are having a crippling effect noone doubts. What is doubted is whether they alone will succeed in toppling the rebel “prime minister.” During the last six months two facts have emerged: one is that sufficient quantities of oil have been getting through from South Africa to keep the country ticking over on a wartime rationing basis for quite a time yet; and the other is that there are more signs that the sanctions have had the effect of rallying anti-Smith Rhodesians to him than making pro-Smith supporters join the loyalists. Worse still, the Zambian Minister of Finance has just stated that in his opinion even if a total United Nations mandatory sanction policy was imposed it would be ineffective. The Zambians have never had any illusions about sanctions and have always demanded the use of force. Where Now? Where in the spring of 1966, does the purposeful Mr Wilson go from here? There is a self-generating momentum in this contest of wills. The Royal Navy is already patrolling the seas outside Beira to look for pirate tankers, but it is not certain what it would do if it found one, and this watch is not 100 per cent effective because (what irony) there is a short-

age of aircraft carriers though now the Royal Air Force have a base in Madagascar. Similarly British troops in Bechuanaland guarding the Francistown broadcasting station are still permitting trains to go through that country to Rhodesia from South’Africa. The attempted Rhodesian blockade has not yet succeeded, and it could yet turn out to have failed completely. The “crunch” which it was hoped would topple Smith has not happened, and now a very serious situation has been reached. So serious that Mr Wilson has called Rhodesia his Cuba. No doubt he sees himself as a latter-day Kennedy. But the message that Sir Hugh Beadle brought with him to London earlier this year was simply that in playing the game of brinkmanship, the brink had not been reached, for behind Rhodesia itself lies the strength of South Africa and the fanatical determination of desperate white men in the whole of southern Africa to maintain their privileged position. Today there are disturbing signs that irrational fanaticism is gaining the upper hand in Salisbury and there is talk of a scorched earth policy, of dynamiting the Kariba dam and a strategic withdrawal to fortress Verwoerd-land. Escalation’s End Is not the logical escalation of it all towards a military intervention —in the interests of long-term peace? Will not the pacifist anti-colonialists of the Labour Left be thirsting for the white mans blood if they have a comfortable majority in the Commons? A logical continuation of the policy of tightening the squeeze would be for British troops in Bechuanaland to cut the railway: for more British troops to build up in Zambia which has already been “recced” by British staff officers and for R.A.F. aircraft to be based in airfields in Zambia, Tanzania and Kenya. The Fleet Air Arm could operate from carriers in the Indian Ocean and parachute troops could come in from Aden and the Gulf. If these preparatory moves actually took place and were coupled with intensive diplomatic pressure to keep the Portuguese territories and South Africa neutral, they might well produce an even greater determination to resist by all the Governments of southern Africa by either overt or covert support for Rhodesia. A massive confrontation, let alone the outbreak of hostilities would put an intolerable strain on people’s loyalties. In the first place British officers and men would have to decide whether they are prepared to die for the righteousness of the British Government’s cause. Indeed security checks have already been made amongst troops in Britain, and there have been a number of desertions by British troops in Bechuam-

land to South Africa and R.A.F. personnel to Rhodesia itself. Apart from this there would be a terrible strain on the loyalty of Rhodesians who would be asked by their illegal regime to kill British troops. Finally, there is always the possibility that as the Algerian war overflowed into France itself so futile assassinations and terrorism might occur in Britain carried out by a few Oswaldtype racialist fanatics of the lunatic right. Hard Choices What a choice faces Mr Wilson! Does he go forward to chaos or backward to defeat? No doubt in the higher reaches of the Ministry of Defence all the pros and cons of an invasion have been considered. but senior staff officers have only got to point to Labour’s own recent Defence White Paper which clearly states that Britain cannot undertake any major military invasion without allies. What allies? The Americans have enough on their hands in Asia. The Organisation of African states is in disarray after the coup in Ghana. This only leaves the United Nations, but wasn’t it Mr Wilson himself who coined the phrase “the Red Army in blue berets”? Only one thing is certain that an invasion would cost a great deal of money. We are hopelessly in debt and it is more than doubtful if the gnomes of Zurich would be prepared to finance a second Boer war.

What is the alternative? “Negotiate with Smith,” the cry goes up from the Right. No comfort here for Mr Wilson either, for if he did. it would not only mean the end of the Commonwealth but it would open up a terrible division in the Labour Party itself.

Even his political opponents admit that Mr Wilson has turned out to be a brilliant politician, but can he overcome this impasse and both avoid escalation to war and negotiate a just settlement which will ensure that freedom and the rule of law are available to both European and African in the Rhodesia of tomorrow?