THE GERMAN ELECTIONS HAS THE OLD MAGIC OF LUDWIG ERHARD FADED?

Press, Volume CIV, Issue 30858, 17 September 1965, Page 10

THE GERMAN ELECTIONS HAS THE OLD MAGIC OF LUDWIG ERHARD FADED?

ißy the Bonn Correspondent of the “Financial Times. > < Reprinted from the "Financial Times" by arrangement I

Dr. Adenauer's photographic portrait on a Christian Democi (C.D.U.) election poster unmistakably raises an eyebrow at the accomparying text: “All niv endeavours served the freedom and peace of oui count: . . . . Ludwig Erhard is continuing my works.” The camera clearly canno. lie.

The quizzical look on the ex-Chancellor s face epitomises much <a what the German election campaign is about. Will the electorate on September 19 transfer to Dr. Erhard, Chancellor since 1963> the adrnnation which it had and still has for Dr. Erhard the man of the Wirtschaftswunder” ?

Or has its confidence been undermined by events, by the insinuations of Dr. Adenauer, and the Opposition’s vocal assurances that Di. Erhard is cantankerous and lacking in both foresight and consistency.

I Dr. Erhard himself and his ! campaign managers seem to be convinced that his reputation has not suffered and that the old magic still works. His whistle-stop campaign up and down the country is designed first and foremost to show himself to the voters. He treats them to few hard ideas on topical subjects, but loves to linger on his record as Minister of Economics.

Travelling with him one gets the feeling that, almost regardless of what he has to say and of how he says it, a large mass of people in the small towns and villages hang upon his every word and enter into a form of almost mystic communion with him. The love affair between Dr. Erhard and the simple folk of Germany may not be as intense as it was about two years ago. But nor does passion seem to have cooled to the point where they are obviously looking out for illicit adventure.

Volksvvagon-hours In the conventional categories of political crystal ball gazing there is little reason why they should. Undeniably they have never had it so good. The Ministry of Economics has just published a mass of statistics to prove it. One set of figures, picked out more or less at random, shows that in order to earn the price of a Volkswagen, an industrial worker had to work for 3900 hours in 1949, 2300 in 1954 and 1100 in 1964. Dr. Erhard, therefore, can afford to make sport of the accusation by the Social Democrats (S.P.D.) that mismanagement in Bonn has imperilled the purchasing power of the Deutschmark. The Opposition, he says, has been wrong on every economic issue in the past—why should it now be right? He follows through with an insinuation that the Social Democrats may revert to full-blooded Socialism if ever they get into power. Britain’s payments troubles are then produced as proof that Socialism spells economic disaster. That kind of electioneering logic usually goes down well at the meetings. If one of the rare hecklers dares to object, he is summarily dealt with as an importunate tool

of “The Party Bosses” Dr. Erhard’s favourite phrase for the S.P.D. Neck And Neck But easy though Dr. Erhard’s passage is in public, the opinion polls hold a different message. According to the pollsters, the two big parties are running neck and neck, with so many undecided voters that the proportional representation system may throw up almost anything on September 19. At the last count, the S.P.D. were ahead by a shade. But it must be the great fear of Mr Willy Brandt and his men that, at the last moment, too many of the "Don’t Know’s” will decide to play

safe and come down on the C.D.U. side of the fence. In anticipation of this danger, much of their election propaganda has concentrated on an attempt subliminally to identify the S.P.D. with safety.

The groundwork was laid during a period of years during which a party, once well to the left of the Labour Party, moved to a position if anything to the right of it. Nationalisation has gone overboard, the idea of giving labour a greater voice in management than it already has in West Germany is

studiously soft-pedalled, as is the idea of planning beyond advocacy of a fairly tame version of the managed economy. Only on some points of the welfare state does the S.P.D. go farther than official thinking in the C.D.U. Even proposals which would have revamped income-tax scales at the expense of the rich have been dropped. Foreign Policy In the field of foreign policy, the S.P.D. has long dropped its opposition to N.A.T.O. On balance, it is more "Atlanticist” than the C.D.U., though Mr Willy Brandt has struck an occasional Gaullist note. His main foreign policy proposal has been a promise that an S.P.D Government would work out the main principles of a peace treaty for Germany. But in general, S.P.D. ideas on relations with the Communist East are on balance less unorthodox than those which the Free Democrats (F.D.P.) have developed while cheerfully serving in the Coalition.

By thus placing themselves In the middle of the road. Mr Brandt and his men have taken a position which may stand them in good stead once the coalition building starts after the election. For it is improbable that either of the two great parties will win a majority big enough to govern on its own. The real infighting may therefore begin when results are in. Since only the Christian Democrats, the Social Democrats and the Free Democrats are at all likely to be represented in the next Bundestag, and since the two big parties are running neck and neck, there may be a repetition of the present position which would enable any two parties together to govern against the third. Bargaining

As the F.D.P., which is sure to come third, has committed itself to continuing the present alliance with the C.D.U., two alternatives emerge, regardless of whether the Christian Democrats or the Social Democrats finish ahead on the day: either the present Coalition, or a “Grand Coalition” of S.P.D. and C.D.U. Dr. Erhard has denounced the idea as an "abortion” and as the negation of the electors’ will. But there are others in his party who are tempted, each for reasons of his own. Some hardly bother to disguise the fact that it would be a convenient way to get rid of Dr. Erhard, others want to steer West Germany on to a left of centre course, others yet, including Mr F. J. Strauss, are tired of the Free Democrats. But he will probably have to face the fact that the Social Democrats are no more likely than the F.D.P. to serve in a Cabinet of which he is a member.

The scene looks set for some pretty subtle bargaining on September 20 and in the following weeks. The master tactician of them all has already given notice that he will be there for the fight. Dr. Adenaur has announced that, as far as he is concerned, the bargaining for a coalition will be conducted by Party Chairmen, meaning himself in the case Of the C.D.U. News of his statement caused some black looks on the Chancellor’s electoral train.