Chinese A-Blast Expected Soon

Press, Volume CIII, Issue 30560, 1 October 1964, Page 17

Chinese A-Blast Expected Soon

nv Z P.A -Reuter—Copyright) WASHINGTON, September 30. The announcement by the United States Secretary of State, Mr Dean Rusk, that China might detonate her first nuclear device “in the near future” was linked with the possibility that the blast might be tomorrow—the 15th anniversary of the Chinese Communist regime—officials said in Washington today.

Mr Rusk, in a special statement yesterday, said if the explosion occurred, the United States would know and would make the information public. There was also speculation that the Chinese might want to impress the conference of non-aligned nations opening in Cairo next Monday. Usually reliable sources said the estimate that the Chinese were capable of exploding a nuclear device much earlier than previously thought likely was reached only in recent days. The “New York Times" said information came from other Governments, some was thought to have been gathered by U2 reconnaissance planes flown by Chinese pilots from Formosa, and some by satellites. Primitive Device It was believed here the Chinese device would be “primitive.” Some officials said it might be about the force of the first U.S. atomic explosion at Alamogordo, New Mexico, in July, 1945, which was rated at 19 kilotons, or the equivalent of 19.000 tons of T.N.T. United States analysts were reported to believe it would be at least five to 10 years before Peking could produce enough plutonium for a stock-

pile of nuclear weapons and the rockets capable of delivering them to distant targets. Commenting in London, “The Times” said the political effects of a Chinese nuclear test were at present more dangerous than the military implications. S.E. Asia Influence The newspaper's Washington correspondent, writing on the prediction that tests would take place in the near future, said: “The new and more definite evidence which is the basis for this prediction has caused the American Administration to prepare for further trouble in Southeast Asia, where the psychological effect of living next to a nuclear power .nay influence the policies of neighbouring countries. “The military implications of a Chinese test are not great, because it might take years to develop a deliver able weapon, but the political effects are seen to be

potentially dangerous. “The Administration’s concern is with the effect on peripheral Governments, such as those in South Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Burma,” the correspondent added.

Arab Republic, will now renew their efforts to break into the nuclear club,” Hollingworth said. In Paris the conservative newspaper “Figaro” said today that certain French atomic experts would not be surprised if China had already exploded a nuclear device “several months ago.” Area Of Blast Japanese nuclear experts believe that if a nuclear test is carried out by China, it will be conducted over the Gobi desert, southern Mongolia, or in Tibet. For detonating the nuclear bomb, plutonium 239, instead of uranium 235,. would probably be used, because China probably does not have the facilities capable of turning out uranium 235 in large amounts at present, the experts also suggested. They said that so far as they knew, China possessed a -10,000 kilowatt reactor necessary for production of plutonium 239 in large quantities, which went into operation in June, 1958.

“Prinee Sihanouk, of Cambodia, has already shown signs of believing in the ultimate triumph of China in the area, and tha fear in Washington is that his attitude may be infectious.” The “Guardian" correspondent, Clare Hollingworth, said the political and psychological effects of China’s becoming a nuclear power would be far greater than those caused by France’s break-through. The first effects would be felt in South-east Asia and Japan, where the Soviet radio had recently accused the Chinese of having “far-reach-ing and expansionist plans.” “There is no doubt that although China cannot be expected to have a sophisticated force of nuclear weapons before 1975-80, other countries, notably Israel, Sweden, [Switzerland, and the United