National Income Estimates

Press, Volume CIII, Issue 30540, 8 September 1964, Page 14

National Income Estimates

New Zealand’s gross national product (G.N.P.) is estimated by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research at £1594 million in the year ended March, 1964, a rise of 10 per cent on the official estimate of £1444 million for 1962-63. The institute forecasts a further rise of 6 per cent in 1964-65. Details of the estimates for 1963-64 and of the forecasts for 1964-65 are published in the institute’s ‘ “ Quarterly Predictions ”, released today. The booklet is intended to be the first of a series. For the economist and statistician, the significance of the new series lies in the breakdown of the main national income components into quarterly figures, an innovation based mainly on the institute’s quarterly surveys of business opinion. Although quarterly estimates of G.N.P. are closely studied and widely reported in the United States, the institute’s latest venture is unlikely to arouse much enthusiasm in New Zealand business circles. The trends outlined and discussed by the institute, however, are of importance to all businessmen and observers of the economic scene. “ Our basic pur- “ pose ”, says the director of the institute (Dr. C. A. Blyth), in a preface to this issue, “is to give an “ assessment of the state of the economy for those “in business and elsewhere who must have an “opinion about the general economic situation and “ prospects

The new series is both supplementary to existing series (such as the official annual estimates of G.N.P.) and competitive with others (such as the Monetary and Economic Council’s forecasts, and those of university economists and private forecasters). Economists are in short supply in New Zealand and the question may well be raised whether the dispersion of effort in allied fields represents an efficient “ allocation of resources ”. As in other forms of business competition, however, the entry of a newcomer should stir competitors into renewed endeavour. If the recent erop of new ventures in the fields of statistics and of forecasting is any indication, there is a welcome recognition in New Zealand of the importance of these aids to official and business policy-making.